Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / PZZA / earnings

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Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.1% Move

$18.80 +1.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.81

Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $618.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.81 (+0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PZZA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PZZA SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3% FCF Margin ($61.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$19.75-1.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$19.39-6.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$18.10+3.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$18.80+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (76) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PZZA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, PZZA faces multiple-compression risk if 20.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.50) or 200D SMA ($30.05) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($19.65) toward Bear Floor ($15.33).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PZZA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PZZA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 27, 2026 (~55 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.1% Swing Band

±$1.33 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

PZZA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 68/100

Trailing EPS: $0.93 • YoY Revenue Growth: -0.3%

Model Bullish Setup (68/100)Model Risk Weight (32/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-28	$2.05B	$30.5M	$61.3M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-29	$2.06B	$83.5M	$34.1M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$2.14B	$82.1M	$193.1M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating PZZA & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on PZZA
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

PZZA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -48.05%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $18.80H $19.11L $18.29C $18.80VOL 1.48M

RES: $17.57SUP: $15.43SMA50: $20.50SMA200: $30.05

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PZZA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PZZA Butterfly Map → + Track PZZA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

13.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PZZA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PZZA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PZZA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PZZA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #222 of 1011 ⚔️ HDL vs PZZA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (PZZA vs. HDL, BRCB, CNNE, FWRG)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) ranks #222 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #565 by equity capitalization ($618.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PZZA leads on earnings valuation at 20.3x trailing P/E, while PZZA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.5% ROIC and — gross margin. PZZA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PZZA ACTIVE Papa John's International Inc.	C+	68/100	20.3x	—	30.5%	+1.40%	$618.9M	Benchmark Subject
HDL SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$643.8M	/hdl-vs-pzza →
BRCB Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A)	D	44/100	—	—	1.6%	+3.82%	$530.3M	/brcb-vs-pzza →
CNNE Cannae Holdings Inc.	D-	35/100	—	15.5%	-10.6%	+1.78%	$743.9M	/cnne-vs-pzza →
FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group Inc.	D	45/100	39.7x	—	3.6%	+8.31%	$772.0M	/fwrg-vs-pzza →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0000901491

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) reported GAAP revenue of $2.05B (-0.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.06B , and -3.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $30.5M, operating cash flow of $126.0M, and free cash flow of $61.3M (+79.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, PZZA closed FY2025 with $837.5M in total assets against $710.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.37, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-28	$2.05B	$30.5M	$126.0M	$61.3M	$837.5M	$710.4M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-29	$2.06B	$83.5M	$106.6M	$34.1M	$889.0M	$741.6M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.14B	$82.1M	$193.1M	$193.1M	—	—

3. PZZA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PZZA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Papa John's International Inc. (NASDAQ: PZZA) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $18.80 (+1.40% 1D, market cap $618.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PZZA ranks #222 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PZZA compare to HDL and BRCB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), PZZA carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.5%. By comparison, HDL (SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $643.8M) and BRCB (Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A)) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.6%, cap $530.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PZZA leads on earnings multiple (20.3x) while PZZA leads on capital efficiency (30.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PZZA?

Per PZZA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0000901491), Papa John's International Inc. generated $2.05B in revenue (-0.3% YoY), $30.5M in net income, and $61.3M in free cash flow against $837.5M in total assets and $710.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PZZA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PZZA last traded at $18.80 (+1.40% on volume of 1,265,219 shares), positioning the stock -8.29% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.50) and -37.44% below its 200-day simple moving average ($30.05). Across its 52-week range of $17.70 to $52.02, PZZA sits at the 3.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.1% ($17.47 to $20.13).

PZZA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is PZZA's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 27, 2026.

How much is PZZA stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7.1% event move for PZZA, spanning a range between $17.47 and $20.13.

Direct Sub-Reports: PZZA RQD Cockpit PZZA 12M Forecast PZZA Earnings & Move PZZA Dividends & DRIP PZZA Insiders & 13F PZZA Whale Options PZZA Profit Sankey PZZA News & Why