Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / FWRG

CNNE (35) BH (65) BLMN (58) HDL (52) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$12.51 +8.31% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $772.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FWRG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.8%

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

64.330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.06>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE30% OF RANGE

L: $10$12.51H: $19

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 4 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on FWRG

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (20)

3.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -4.01% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 1.06 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (52)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like FWRG

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Priced at 40x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FWRG)

✓Walkthrough of FWRG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FWRG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.65%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $12.73H $13.14L $12.51C $12.51VOL 2.16M

RES: $13.09SUP: $9.85SMA50: $11.37SMA200: $12.43

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FWRG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FWRG Butterfly Map → + Track FWRG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

30.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FWRG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FWRG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FWRG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FWRG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #749 of 1011 ⚔️ CNNE vs FWRG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (FWRG vs. CNNE, BH, BLMN, HDL)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) ranks #749 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #542 by equity capitalization ($772.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FWRG leads on earnings valuation at 39.7x trailing P/E, while BLMN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.7% ROIC and 70.2% gross margin. BH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with FWRG at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FWRG ACTIVE First Watch Restaurant Group Inc.	D	45/100	39.7x	—	3.6%	+8.31%	$772.0M	Benchmark Subject
CNNE Cannae Holdings Inc.	D-	35/100	—	15.5%	-10.6%	+1.78%	$743.9M	/cnne-vs-fwrg →
BH Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B)	C	65/100	—	59.2%	-7.2%	+1.47%	$908.1M	/bh-vs-fwrg →
BLMN Bloomin' Brands Inc.	D+	58/100	111.1x	70.2%	10.7%	+7.01%	$915.3M	/blmn-vs-fwrg →
HDL SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$643.8M	/hdl-vs-fwrg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0001789940

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) reported GAAP revenue of $1.22B (+20.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.02B , and +37.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $19.4M, operating cash flow of $125.9M, and free cash flow of -$31.0M (-153.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, FWRG closed FY2025 with $1.74B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.06, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-28	$1.22B	$19.4M	$125.9M	-$31.0M	$1.74B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-29	$1.02B	$18.9M	$115.7M	-$12.2M	$1.51B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$891.6M	$25.4M	$95.3M	$95.3M	—	—

3. FWRG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FWRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FWRG) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $12.51 (+8.31% 1D, market cap $772.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FWRG ranks #749 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FWRG compare to CNNE and BH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), FWRG carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 39.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.6%. By comparison, CNNE (Cannae Holdings Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.6%, cap $743.9M) and BH (Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B)) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $908.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FWRG leads on earnings multiple (39.7x) while BLMN leads on capital efficiency (10.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FWRG?

Per FWRG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001789940), First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. generated $1.22B in revenue (+20.3% YoY), $19.4M in net income, and -$31.0M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FWRG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FWRG last traded at $12.51 (+8.31% on volume of 2,130,535 shares), positioning the stock +10.03% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.37) and +0.64% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.43). Across its 52-week range of $9.88 to $18.77, FWRG sits at the 29.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.8% ($11.03 to $13.99).

FWRG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell FWRG stock right now?

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 45/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 40x P/E (4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is FWRG's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

FWRG's 12-month base price target is $11.78 (range $9.19 to $19.71), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: FWRG RQD Cockpit FWRG 12M Forecast FWRG Earnings & Move FWRG Dividends & DRIP FWRG Insiders & 13F FWRG Whale Options FWRG Profit Sankey FWRG News & Why