Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / FWRG / financials

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First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$12.51 +8.31% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $772.0M

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RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FWRG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.8%

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How FWRG Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $891.6M

FY24

Rev $1.02B

FY25

Rev $1.22B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.22B	52%	2.3%	$19.4M	-$31.0M	3.6%
FY 2024	$1.02B	52%	3.8%	$18.9M	-$12.2M	5.5%
FY 2023	$891.6M	52%	4.6%	$25.4M	$95.3M	3.6%

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FWRG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.65%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $12.73H $13.14L $12.51C $12.51VOL 2.16M

RES: $13.09SUP: $9.85SMA50: $11.37SMA200: $12.43

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FWRG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FWRG Butterfly Map → + Track FWRG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

30.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FWRG today. View full Setup Ledger →

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No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FWRG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

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DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FWRG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #749 of 1011 ⚔️ CNNE vs FWRG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (FWRG vs. CNNE, BH, BLMN, HDL)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) ranks #749 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #542 by equity capitalization ($772.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FWRG leads on earnings valuation at 39.7x trailing P/E, while BLMN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.7% ROIC and 70.2% gross margin. BH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with FWRG at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FWRG ACTIVE First Watch Restaurant Group Inc.	D	45/100	39.7x	—	3.6%	+8.31%	$772.0M	Benchmark Subject
CNNE Cannae Holdings Inc.	D-	35/100	—	15.5%	-10.6%	+1.78%	$743.9M	/cnne-vs-fwrg →
BH Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B)	C	65/100	—	59.2%	-7.2%	+1.47%	$908.1M	/bh-vs-fwrg →
BLMN Bloomin' Brands Inc.	D+	58/100	111.1x	70.2%	10.7%	+7.01%	$915.3M	/blmn-vs-fwrg →
HDL SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$643.8M	/hdl-vs-fwrg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0001789940

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) reported GAAP revenue of $1.22B (+20.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.02B , and +37.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $19.4M, operating cash flow of $125.9M, and free cash flow of -$31.0M (-153.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, FWRG closed FY2025 with $1.74B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.06, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-28	$1.22B	$19.4M	$125.9M	-$31.0M	$1.74B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-29	$1.02B	$18.9M	$115.7M	-$12.2M	$1.51B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$891.6M	$25.4M	$95.3M	$95.3M	—	—

3. FWRG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FWRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FWRG) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $12.51 (+8.31% 1D, market cap $772.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FWRG ranks #749 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FWRG compare to CNNE and BH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), FWRG carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 39.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.6%. By comparison, CNNE (Cannae Holdings Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.6%, cap $743.9M) and BH (Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B)) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $908.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FWRG leads on earnings multiple (39.7x) while BLMN leads on capital efficiency (10.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FWRG?

Per FWRG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001789940), First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. generated $1.22B in revenue (+20.3% YoY), $19.4M in net income, and -$31.0M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FWRG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FWRG last traded at $12.51 (+8.31% on volume of 2,130,535 shares), positioning the stock +10.03% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.37) and +0.64% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.43). Across its 52-week range of $9.88 to $18.77, FWRG sits at the 29.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.8% ($11.03 to $13.99).