Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / FWRG / forecast

CNNE (35) BH (65) BLMN (58) HDL (52) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Where is FWRG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FWRG last traded at $12.51 (+8.31% on volume of 2,130,535 shares), positioning the stock +10.03% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.37) and +0.64% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.43). Across its 52-week range of $9.88 to $18.77, FWRG sits at the 29.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.8% ($11.03 to $13.99).

Q: What is FWRG's 12-month stock price target?

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $11.78 (-5.8% from $12.51), with a bull-case target of $19.71 and a bear-case floor of $9.19.

Q: Is FWRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates FWRG D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 45/100.

$12.51 +8.31% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.67

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $772.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FWRG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FWRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-01, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FWRG) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $12.51 (+8.31% 1D, market cap $772.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FWRG ranks #749 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FWRG compare to CNNE and BH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), FWRG carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 39.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.6%. By comparison, CNNE (Cannae Holdings Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.6%, cap $743.9M) and BH (Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B)) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $908.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FWRG leads on earnings multiple (39.7x) while BLMN leads on capital efficiency (10.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FWRG?

▼

Per FWRG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001789940), First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. generated $1.22B in revenue (+20.3% YoY), $19.4M in net income, and -$31.0M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.67 (+1.31%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FWRG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FWRG SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (31% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.06 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 2.3% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$10.98+10.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$12.12-10.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$10.89+14.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D$12.51-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (37) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FWRG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FWRG currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.37) and Max Pain ($13.14) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.71.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FWRG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FWRG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your FWRG Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $12.51: 799.4 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $9.19

$7,346

$-2,654 (-26.5%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $11.78

$9,416

$-584 (-5.8%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $19.71

$15,755

+$5,755 (+57.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$12	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$19	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$10	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FWRG)

✓Walkthrough of FWRG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FWRG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.65%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $12.73H $13.14L $12.51C $12.51VOL 2.16M

RES: $13.09SUP: $9.85SMA50: $11.37SMA200: $12.43

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FWRG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FWRG Butterfly Map → + Track FWRG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

30.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FWRG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FWRG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FWRG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FWRG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #749 of 1011 ⚔️ CNNE vs FWRG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (FWRG vs. CNNE, BH, BLMN, HDL)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) ranks #749 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #542 by equity capitalization ($772.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FWRG leads on earnings valuation at 39.7x trailing P/E, while BLMN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.7% ROIC and 70.2% gross margin. BH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with FWRG at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FWRG ACTIVE First Watch Restaurant Group Inc.	D	45/100	39.7x	—	3.6%	+8.31%	$772.0M	Benchmark Subject
CNNE Cannae Holdings Inc.	D-	35/100	—	15.5%	-10.6%	+1.78%	$743.9M	/cnne-vs-fwrg →
BH Biglari Holdings Inc. (Class B)	C	65/100	—	59.2%	-7.2%	+1.47%	$908.1M	/bh-vs-fwrg →
BLMN Bloomin' Brands Inc.	D+	58/100	111.1x	70.2%	10.7%	+7.01%	$915.3M	/blmn-vs-fwrg →
HDL SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$643.8M	/hdl-vs-fwrg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0001789940

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) reported GAAP revenue of $1.22B (+20.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.02B , and +37.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $19.4M, operating cash flow of $125.9M, and free cash flow of -$31.0M (-153.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, FWRG closed FY2025 with $1.74B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.06, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-28	$1.22B	$19.4M	$125.9M	-$31.0M	$1.74B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-29	$1.02B	$18.9M	$115.7M	-$12.2M	$1.51B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$891.6M	$25.4M	$95.3M	$95.3M	—	—

3. FWRG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FWRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does FWRG compare to CNNE and BH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FWRG?

Where is FWRG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FWRG last traded at $12.51 (+8.31% on volume of 2,130,535 shares), positioning the stock +10.03% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.37) and +0.64% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.43). Across its 52-week range of $9.88 to $18.77, FWRG sits at the 29.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.8% ($11.03 to $13.99).

FWRG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is FWRG's 12-month stock price target?

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $11.78 (-5.8% from $12.51), with a bull-case target of $19.71 and a bear-case floor of $9.19.

Is FWRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates FWRG D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 45/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: FWRG RQD Cockpit FWRG 12M Forecast FWRG Earnings & Move FWRG Dividends & DRIP FWRG Insiders & 13F FWRG Whale Options FWRG Profit Sankey FWRG News & Why