Stock Ratings / Financials / PROV / options

SFBC (67) RVSB (49) BYFC (31) MGYR (63) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$18.20 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.17

Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $112.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.17 (-0.19%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PROV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PROV SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$18.26-0.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$18.15+0.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$18.20+0% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$18.20+0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (68) → C- (60)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PROV Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, PROV faces multiple-compression risk if 18.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($18.34) or 200D SMA ($17.21) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($18.36) toward Bear Floor ($14.32).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PROV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PROV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±2%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (PROV)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for PROV.

Sponsored / Partner SpotlightACTIVE TRADER & PROP EVALUATION DESK

Practice in Our Weekly $100,000 Paper Arena Before Risking Personal Capital

Keep your personal nest egg in cash while trading NQ, ES, Crude, and Gold momentum using institutional prop-desk buying power.

FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

🏆 Enter Free $100K Paper Arena →

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating PROV & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on PROV
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

PROV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.06%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $18.20H $18.20L $18.11C $18.20VOL 8.2K

RES: $20.03SUP: $18.06SMA50: $18.34SMA200: $17.21

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PROV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PROV Butterfly Map → + Track PROV →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PROV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PROV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PROV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PROV)

Financials Rank #524 of 1096 ⚔️ SFBC vs PROV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PROV vs. SFBC, RVSB, BYFC, MGYR)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) ranks #524 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #949 by equity capitalization ($112.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MGYR leads on earnings valuation at 13.4x trailing P/E, while MGYR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SFBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with PROV at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PROV ACTIVE Provident Financial Holdings Inc.	C-	60/100	18.0x	—	4.9%	0.00%	$112.8M	Benchmark Subject
SFBC Sound Financial Bancorp Inc.	C+	67/100	16.1x	—	6.5%	0.00%	$115.6M	/sfbc-vs-prov →
RVSB Riverview Bancorp Inc	D	49/100	—	—	-2.6%	-1.82%	$119.4M	/rvsb-vs-prov →
BYFC Broadway Financial Corporation (Class A)	E	31/100	—	—	-9.4%	+0.26%	$106.5M	/byfc-vs-prov →
MGYR Magyar Bancorp Inc.	C	63/100	13.4x	—	8.0%	+0.45%	$130.7M	/mgyr-vs-prov →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001010470

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $6.3M, operating cash flow of $8.7M, and free cash flow of $8.2M (+99.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, PROV closed FY2025 with $1.23B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$0	$6.3M	$8.7M	$8.2M	$1.23B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-30	$0	$7.4M	$5.7M	$4.1M	$1.25B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-06-30	$0	$8.6M	$16.3M	$16.3M	—	—

3. PROV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PROV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PROV) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $18.20 (0.00% 1D, market cap $112.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PROV ranks #524 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PROV compare to SFBC and RVSB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), PROV carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.9%. By comparison, SFBC (Sound Financial Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $115.6M) and RVSB (Riverview Bancorp Inc) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.6%, cap $119.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGYR leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while MGYR leads on capital efficiency (8.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PROV?

Per PROV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001010470), Provident Financial Holdings Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $6.3M in net income, and $8.2M in free cash flow against $1.23B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PROV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PROV last traded at $18.20 (0.00% on volume of 7,623 shares), positioning the stock -0.76% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.34) and +5.75% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.21). Across its 52-week range of $14.95 to $18.99, PROV sits at the 80.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±2.0% ($17.84 to $18.56).

PROV Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is PROV's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for PROV.

Direct Sub-Reports: PROV RQD Cockpit PROV 12M Forecast PROV Earnings & Move PROV Dividends & DRIP PROV Insiders & 13F PROV Whale Options PROV Profit Sankey PROV News & Why