Stock Ratings / Financials / PROV / earnings

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Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±2% Move

$18.20 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.17

Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $112.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.17 (-0.19%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PROV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PROV SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$18.26-0.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$18.15+0.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$18.20+0% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$18.20+0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (68) → C- (60)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PROV Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, PROV faces multiple-compression risk if 18.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($18.34) or 200D SMA ($17.21) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($18.36) toward Bear Floor ($14.32).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PROV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PROV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 28, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±2% Swing Band

±$0.36 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

PROV Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 60/100

Trailing EPS: $1.01 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (60/100)Model Risk Weight (40/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-06-30	$0	$6.3M	$8.2M	52%
FY 2024	2024-06-30	$0	$7.4M	$4.1M	52%
FY 2023	2023-06-30	$0	$8.6M	$16.3M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating PROV & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on PROV
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

PROV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.06%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $18.20H $18.20L $18.11C $18.20VOL 8.2K

RES: $20.03SUP: $18.06SMA50: $18.34SMA200: $17.21

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PROV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PROV Butterfly Map → + Track PROV →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PROV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PROV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PROV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PROV)

Financials Rank #524 of 1096 ⚔️ SFBC vs PROV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PROV vs. SFBC, RVSB, BYFC, MGYR)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) ranks #524 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #949 by equity capitalization ($112.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MGYR leads on earnings valuation at 13.4x trailing P/E, while MGYR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SFBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with PROV at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PROV ACTIVE Provident Financial Holdings Inc.	C-	60/100	18.0x	—	4.9%	0.00%	$112.8M	Benchmark Subject
SFBC Sound Financial Bancorp Inc.	C+	67/100	16.1x	—	6.5%	0.00%	$115.6M	/sfbc-vs-prov →
RVSB Riverview Bancorp Inc	D	49/100	—	—	-2.6%	-1.82%	$119.4M	/rvsb-vs-prov →
BYFC Broadway Financial Corporation (Class A)	E	31/100	—	—	-9.4%	+0.26%	$106.5M	/byfc-vs-prov →
MGYR Magyar Bancorp Inc.	C	63/100	13.4x	—	8.0%	+0.45%	$130.7M	/mgyr-vs-prov →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001010470

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $6.3M, operating cash flow of $8.7M, and free cash flow of $8.2M (+99.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, PROV closed FY2025 with $1.23B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$0	$6.3M	$8.7M	$8.2M	$1.23B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-30	$0	$7.4M	$5.7M	$4.1M	$1.25B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-06-30	$0	$8.6M	$16.3M	$16.3M	—	—

3. PROV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PROV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PROV) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $18.20 (0.00% 1D, market cap $112.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PROV ranks #524 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PROV compare to SFBC and RVSB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), PROV carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.9%. By comparison, SFBC (Sound Financial Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $115.6M) and RVSB (Riverview Bancorp Inc) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.6%, cap $119.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGYR leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while MGYR leads on capital efficiency (8.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PROV?

Per PROV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001010470), Provident Financial Holdings Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $6.3M in net income, and $8.2M in free cash flow against $1.23B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PROV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PROV last traded at $18.20 (0.00% on volume of 7,623 shares), positioning the stock -0.76% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.34) and +5.75% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.21). Across its 52-week range of $14.95 to $18.99, PROV sits at the 80.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±2.0% ($17.84 to $18.56).

PROV Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is PROV's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 28, 2026.

How much is PROV stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±2% event move for PROV, spanning a range between $17.84 and $18.56.

Direct Sub-Reports: PROV RQD Cockpit PROV 12M Forecast PROV Earnings & Move PROV Dividends & DRIP PROV Insiders & 13F PROV Whale Options PROV Profit Sankey PROV News & Why