MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 1d ago
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. 2027 Q1 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation2026-10-31. The following slide deck was published by Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.
Why PROV Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$18.20 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.17
Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $112.8M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.17 (-0.19%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PROV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PROV SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B-$18.26-0.6% Next Q
68
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$18.15+0.3% Next Q
65
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$18.20+0% Next Q
63
CurrentGrade C-$18.20+0.4% Hist 90D α
60
Trajectory: B- (68) → C- (60)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PROV Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, PROV faces multiple-compression risk if 18.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($18.34) or 200D SMA ($17.21) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($18.36) toward Bear Floor ($14.32).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PROV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PROV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why PROV Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) slipped 0.00% to $18.20, trading at 80% of its 52-week range ($14.95 – $18.99). Solid steady margins (5% return on capital), mixed timing at 18x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 80% of its 52-week range ($14.95 – $18.99) with RSI-14 at 46.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±2% around $18.20 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $8.2M annual free cash flow.
Live PROV Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
Provident Financial Q1 Earnings Call HighlightsProvident Financial (NASDAQ:PROV) reported modest loan growth in its fiscal first quarter of 2027, supported by lower loan payoff activity and stable origination pipelines, while management said it expects seasonal facto
MARKET WIREYahoo • 4d ago
Provident Financial: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term InvestorsLoan repricing is pushing yields higher while credit quality remains pristine, a rare combination that justifies aggressive capital returns.
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 4d ago
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) Q1 2027 Earnings Call TranscriptProvident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) Q1 2027 Earnings Call October 28, 2026 12:00 PM EDTCompany ParticipantsDonavon Ternes - President, CEO &...
MARKET WIREYahoo • 4d ago
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. Q1 2027 Earnings Call SummaryMoby summary of Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.'s Q1 2027 earnings call
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) Stock Can Q1 Earnings Sustain The DividendProvident Financial Holdings just posted its Q1 2027 numbers and the share price barely flinched, up only 0.2% in Wednesday trading. That muted move masks a sharper story. Earnings per share came in at US$0.25 with net i
MARKET WIREYahoo • 5d ago
Provident Financial (PROV) Q1 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus EstimatesWhile the top- and bottom-line numbers for Provident Financial (PROV) give a sense of how the business performed in the quarter ended September 2026, it could be worth looking at how some of its key metrics compare to Wa
MARKET WIREYahoo • 5d ago
Provident Financial (PROV) Q1 Earnings Lag EstimatesProvident Financial (PROV) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of -21.88% and +1.19%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
CATALYSTYahoo • 5d ago
Provident Financial: Fiscal Q1 Earnings Snapshot(AP) — Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) on Tuesday reported profit of $1.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 5d ago
Provident Financial Holdings Reports First Quarter Of Fiscal 2027 ResultsNet Income of $1.57 Million in the September 2026 Quarter, Down 28% from the Sequential Quarter and 6% from the Comparable Quarter Last Year Net Interest Margin of 3.32% in the September 2026 Quarter, Up 11 Basis Points
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (PROV Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
PROV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.06%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $18.20H $18.20L $18.11C $18.20VOL 8.2K
RES: $20.03SUP: $18.06SMA50: $18.34SMA200: $17.21
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
PROV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PROV today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PROV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PROV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PROV)
Financials Rank #524 of 1096
⚔️ SFBC vs PROV Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PROV vs. SFBC, RVSB, BYFC, MGYR)
Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) ranks #524 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #949 by equity capitalization ($112.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MGYR leads on earnings valuation at 13.4x trailing P/E, while MGYR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SFBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with PROV at 60/100 (C-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROV
ACTIVE
Provident Financial Holdings Inc. | C- | 60/100 | 18.0x | — | 4.9% | 0.00% | $112.8M | Benchmark Subject |
| SFBC Sound Financial Bancorp Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 16.1x | — | 6.5% | 0.00% | $115.6M | /sfbc-vs-prov → |
| RVSB Riverview Bancorp Inc | D | 49/100 | — | — | -2.6% | -1.82% | $119.4M | /rvsb-vs-prov → |
| BYFC Broadway Financial Corporation (Class A) | E | 31/100 | — | — | -9.4% | +0.26% | $106.5M | /byfc-vs-prov → |
| MGYR Magyar Bancorp Inc. | C | 63/100 | 13.4x | — | 8.0% | +0.45% | $130.7M | /mgyr-vs-prov → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001010470In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (PROV) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $6.3M, operating cash flow of $8.7M, and free cash flow of $8.2M (+99.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, PROV closed FY2025 with $1.23B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-06-30 | $0 | $6.3M | $8.7M | $8.2M | $1.23B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-06-30 | $0 | $7.4M | $5.7M | $4.1M | $1.25B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-06-30 | $0 | $8.6M | $16.3M | $16.3M | — | — |
3. PROV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs PROV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PROV) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $18.20 (0.00% 1D, market cap $112.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PROV ranks #524 in composite RQD confidence.
How does PROV compare to SFBC and RVSB in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), PROV carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.9%. By comparison, SFBC (Sound Financial Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $115.6M) and RVSB (Riverview Bancorp Inc) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.6%, cap $119.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGYR leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while MGYR leads on capital efficiency (8.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PROV?
Per PROV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001010470), Provident Financial Holdings Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $6.3M in net income, and $8.2M in free cash flow against $1.23B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is PROV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
PROV last traded at $18.20 (0.00% on volume of 7,623 shares), positioning the stock -0.76% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.34) and +5.75% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.21). Across its 52-week range of $14.95 to $18.99, PROV sits at the 80.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±2.0% ($17.84 to $18.56).
PROV Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is PROV stock moving today?
Why PROV Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (5% return on capital), mixed timing at 18x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.