Stock Ratings / Financials / PLGO / forecast

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Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited (PLGO) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$26.12 +1.91% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.16

Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited (PLGO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.26B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.16 (+0.15%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PLGO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PLGO SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.4% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 95% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 66.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$24.28+4.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$25.36+2.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$25.88+0.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D$26.12-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a PLGO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While PLGO currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($24.68) and Max Pain ($27.43) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $28.87.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PLGO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PLGO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your PLGO Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $26.12: 382.8 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $19.09

$7,309

$-2,691 (-26.9%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $24.47

$9,368

$-632 (-6.3%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $28.87

$11,053

+$1,053 (+10.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$25	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$27	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$22	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PLGO)

✓Walkthrough of PLGO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

PLGO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.62%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $26.54H $26.56L $26.12C $26.12VOL 224.0K

RES: $26.13SUP: $21.58SMA50: $24.68SMA200: $22.37

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PLGO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PLGO Butterfly Map → + Track PLGO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PLGO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PLGO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PLGO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PLGO)

Financials Rank #942 of 1096 ⚔️ HCI vs PLGO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PLGO vs. HCI, SKWD, KMPR, HMN)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited (PLGO) ranks #942 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #412 by equity capitalization ($2.26B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HCI leads on earnings valuation at 7.7x trailing P/E, while HCI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.8% ROIC and — gross margin. HCI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with PLGO at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PLGO ACTIVE Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited	D	44/100	—	—	—	+1.91%	$2.26B	Benchmark Subject
HCI HCI Group Inc.	B+	76/100	7.7x	—	30.8%	+1.53%	$2.47B	/hci-vs-plgo →
SKWD Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc.	C+	68/100	15.3x	—	16.8%	+0.95%	$2.60B	/skwd-vs-plgo →
KMPR Kemper Corporation	C+	67/100	13.4x	—	5.3%	+10.48%	$1.92B	/kmpr-vs-plgo →
HMN Horace Mann Educators Corporation	C-	61/100	11.6x	—	10.9%	+1.79%	$1.89B	/hmn-vs-plgo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001636639

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited (PLGO) reported GAAP revenue of $2.50B (+3.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.42B , and -30.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of -$408.3M, and free cash flow of -$408.3M (-166.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, PLGO closed FY2025 with $12.44B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.50B	$0	-$408.3M	-$408.3M	$12.44B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.42B	$113.3M	$618.2M	$618.2M	$11.77B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.60B	$2.13B	$495.2M	$495.2M	—	—

3. PLGO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PLGO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited (NYSE: PLGO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $26.12 (+1.91% 1D, market cap $2.26B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PLGO ranks #942 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PLGO compare to HCI and SKWD in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), PLGO carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, HCI (HCI Group Inc.) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 7.7x, ROIC 30.8%, cap $2.47B) and SKWD (Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $2.60B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCI leads on earnings multiple (7.7x) while HCI leads on capital efficiency (30.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PLGO?

Per PLGO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001636639), Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited generated $2.50B in revenue (+3.3% YoY), $0 in net income, and -$408.3M in free cash flow against $12.44B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PLGO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PLGO last traded at $26.12 (+1.91% on volume of 212,086 shares), positioning the stock +5.83% above its 50-day simple moving average ($24.68) and +16.76% above its 200-day simple moving average ($22.37). Across its 52-week range of $17.74 to $26.56, PLGO sits at the 95.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.4% ($24.97 to $27.27).

PLGO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is PLGO's 12-month stock price target?

Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited (PLGO) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $24.47 (-6.3% from $26.12), with a bull-case target of $28.87 and a bear-case floor of $19.09.

Is PLGO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates PLGO D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 44/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: PLGO RQD Cockpit PLGO 12M Forecast PLGO Earnings & Move PLGO Dividends & DRIP PLGO Insiders & 13F PLGO Whale Options PLGO Profit Sankey PLGO News & Why