Stock Ratings / Financials / PLGO / earnings

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Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited (PLGO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.4% Move

$26.12 +1.91% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.16

Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited (PLGO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.26B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.16 (+0.15%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PLGO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PLGO SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.4% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 95% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 66.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$24.28+4.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$25.36+2.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$25.88+0.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D$26.12-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a PLGO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While PLGO currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($24.68) and Max Pain ($27.43) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $28.87.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PLGO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PLGO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.4% Swing Band

±$1.15 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

PLGO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 44/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 3.3%

Model Bullish Setup (44/100)Model Risk Weight (56/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$2.50B	$0	-$408.3M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$2.42B	$113.3M	$618.2M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$3.60B	$2.13B	$495.2M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PLGO)

✓Walkthrough of PLGO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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PLGO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.62%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $26.54H $26.56L $26.12C $26.12VOL 224.0K

RES: $26.13SUP: $21.58SMA50: $24.68SMA200: $22.37

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PLGO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PLGO Butterfly Map → + Track PLGO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PLGO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PLGO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PLGO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PLGO)

Financials Rank #942 of 1096 ⚔️ HCI vs PLGO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PLGO vs. HCI, SKWD, KMPR, HMN)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited (PLGO) ranks #942 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #412 by equity capitalization ($2.26B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HCI leads on earnings valuation at 7.7x trailing P/E, while HCI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.8% ROIC and — gross margin. HCI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with PLGO at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PLGO ACTIVE Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited	D	44/100	—	—	—	+1.91%	$2.26B	Benchmark Subject
HCI HCI Group Inc.	B+	76/100	7.7x	—	30.8%	+1.53%	$2.47B	/hci-vs-plgo →
SKWD Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc.	C+	68/100	15.3x	—	16.8%	+0.95%	$2.60B	/skwd-vs-plgo →
KMPR Kemper Corporation	C+	67/100	13.4x	—	5.3%	+10.48%	$1.92B	/kmpr-vs-plgo →
HMN Horace Mann Educators Corporation	C-	61/100	11.6x	—	10.9%	+1.79%	$1.89B	/hmn-vs-plgo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001636639

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited (PLGO) reported GAAP revenue of $2.50B (+3.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.42B , and -30.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of -$408.3M, and free cash flow of -$408.3M (-166.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, PLGO closed FY2025 with $12.44B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.50B	$0	-$408.3M	-$408.3M	$12.44B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.42B	$113.3M	$618.2M	$618.2M	$11.77B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.60B	$2.13B	$495.2M	$495.2M	—	—

3. PLGO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PLGO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited (NYSE: PLGO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $26.12 (+1.91% 1D, market cap $2.26B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PLGO ranks #942 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PLGO compare to HCI and SKWD in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), PLGO carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, HCI (HCI Group Inc.) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 7.7x, ROIC 30.8%, cap $2.47B) and SKWD (Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $2.60B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCI leads on earnings multiple (7.7x) while HCI leads on capital efficiency (30.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PLGO?

Per PLGO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001636639), Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited generated $2.50B in revenue (+3.3% YoY), $0 in net income, and -$408.3M in free cash flow against $12.44B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PLGO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PLGO last traded at $26.12 (+1.91% on volume of 212,086 shares), positioning the stock +5.83% above its 50-day simple moving average ($24.68) and +16.76% above its 200-day simple moving average ($22.37). Across its 52-week range of $17.74 to $26.56, PLGO sits at the 95.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.4% ($24.97 to $27.27).

PLGO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is PLGO's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited (PLGO)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is PLGO stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.4% event move for PLGO, spanning a range between $24.97 and $27.27.

Direct Sub-Reports: PLGO RQD Cockpit PLGO 12M Forecast PLGO Earnings & Move PLGO Dividends & DRIP PLGO Insiders & 13F PLGO Whale Options PLGO Profit Sankey PLGO News & Why