Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-01, Octave Specialty Group Inc. (NYSE: OSG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $4.95 (+3.77% 1D, market cap $223.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, OSG ranks #1031 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), OSG carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MBI (MBIA Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $227.0M) and JRVR (James River Group Holdings Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 3.8x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $181.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRVR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while KINS leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).
Per OSG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000874501), Octave Specialty Group Inc. generated $143.4M in revenue (+55.8% YoY), -$259.0M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $2.22B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.3% realized swing band)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9
Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
While OSG currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.62) and Max Pain ($5.20) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.90.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) surged +3.77% to $4.95, trading at 16% of its 52-week range ($3.88 – $10.38). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Third Avenue Management, an investment management company, released its third-quarter 2026 investor letter for the “Third Avenue Small-Cap Value Fund”. The letter can be downloaded here. The Third Avenue Small-Cap Value
Third Avenue Management, an investment management company, released its third-quarter 2026 investor letter for the “Third Avenue Small-Cap Value Fund”. The letter can be downloaded here. The Third Avenue Small-Cap Value
NEW YORK, October 23, 2026--Everspan announces sale of admitted shell company to Falvey Insurance Group
Everspan Group ("Everspan"), a specialty property and casualty insurance platform and wholly owned subsidiary of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (NYSE: OSG), has signed a definitive agreement to sell its redundant
NEW YORK, October 19, 2026--Octave Specialty Group to Release Third Quarter 2026 Results on November 9, 2026
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +55.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OSG today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OSG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) ranks #1031 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #868 by equity capitalization ($223.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JRVR leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while KINS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. KINS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with OSG at 35/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSG
ACTIVE
Octave Specialty Group Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +3.77% | $223.0M | Benchmark Subject |
| MBI MBIA Inc. | C- | 59/100 | — | — | — | -0.22% | $227.0M | /mbi-vs-osg → |
| JRVR James River Group Holdings Inc. | D | 46/100 | 3.8x | — | 8.8% | +1.82% | $181.3M | /jrvr-vs-osg → |
| KWY Kingsway Corporation | D- | 40/100 | — | — | -13.6% | -0.41% | $278.3M | /kwy-vs-osg → |
| KINS Kingstone Companies Inc. | B | 73/100 | 7.1x | — | 33.2% | +1.73% | $290.1M | /kins-vs-osg → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) reported GAAP revenue of $143.4M (+55.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $92.0M , and +179.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$259.0M, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, OSG closed FY2025 with $2.22B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $143.4M | -$259.0M | — | — | $2.22B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $92.0M | -$556.0M | — | — | $8.06B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $51.3M | $5.0M | — | — | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Octave Specialty Group Inc. (NYSE: OSG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $4.95 (+3.77% 1D, market cap $223.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, OSG ranks #1031 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), OSG carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MBI (MBIA Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $227.0M) and JRVR (James River Group Holdings Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 3.8x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $181.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRVR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while KINS leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).
Per OSG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000874501), Octave Specialty Group Inc. generated $143.4M in revenue (+55.8% YoY), -$259.0M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $2.22B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
OSG last traded at $4.95 (+3.77% on volume of 510,060 shares), positioning the stock +7.14% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.62) and -4.99% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.21). Across its 52-week range of $3.88 to $10.38, OSG sits at the 16.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($4.59 to $5.31).
Why OSG Stock surged +3.77% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
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