Stock Ratings / Financials / OSG / insiders

MBI (59) JRVR (46) KWY (40) KINS (73) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$4.95 +3.77% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.97

Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $223.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OSG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OSG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Octave Specialty Group Inc. (NYSE: OSG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $4.95 (+3.77% 1D, market cap $223.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, OSG ranks #1031 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OSG compare to MBI and JRVR in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), OSG carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MBI (MBIA Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $227.0M) and JRVR (James River Group Holdings Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 3.8x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $181.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRVR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while KINS leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OSG?

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Per OSG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000874501), Octave Specialty Group Inc. generated $143.4M in revenue (+55.8% YoY), -$259.0M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $2.22B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.97 (+0.49%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 4.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OSG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OSG SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (29% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.3% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$4.62+0.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$4.66+1.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$4.75+4.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$4.95-8.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (27) → D- (35)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OSG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While OSG currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.62) and Max Pain ($5.20) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.90.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OSG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OSG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

OSG Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (OSG)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on OSG. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OSG)

✓Walkthrough of OSG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

OSG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.74%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $4.97H $5.07L $4.91C $4.95VOL 513.3K

RES: $4.56SUP: $3.59SMA50: $4.62SMA200: $5.21

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OSG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OSG Butterfly Map → + Track OSG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +55.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OSG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OSG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OSG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OSG)

Financials Rank #1031 of 1096 ⚔️ MBI vs OSG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (OSG vs. MBI, JRVR, KWY, KINS)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) ranks #1031 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #868 by equity capitalization ($223.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JRVR leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while KINS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. KINS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with OSG at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OSG ACTIVE Octave Specialty Group Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.77%	$223.0M	Benchmark Subject
MBI MBIA Inc.	C-	59/100	—	—	—	-0.22%	$227.0M	/mbi-vs-osg →
JRVR James River Group Holdings Inc.	D	46/100	3.8x	—	8.8%	+1.82%	$181.3M	/jrvr-vs-osg →
KWY Kingsway Corporation	D-	40/100	—	—	-13.6%	-0.41%	$278.3M	/kwy-vs-osg →
KINS Kingstone Companies Inc.	B	73/100	7.1x	—	33.2%	+1.73%	$290.1M	/kins-vs-osg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000874501

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) reported GAAP revenue of $143.4M (+55.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $92.0M , and +179.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$259.0M, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, OSG closed FY2025 with $2.22B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$143.4M	-$259.0M	—	—	$2.22B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$92.0M	-$556.0M	—	—	$8.06B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$51.3M	$5.0M	—	—	—	—

3. OSG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OSG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does OSG compare to MBI and JRVR in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OSG?

Where is OSG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OSG last traded at $4.95 (+3.77% on volume of 510,060 shares), positioning the stock +7.14% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.62) and -4.99% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.21). Across its 52-week range of $3.88 to $10.38, OSG sits at the 16.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($4.59 to $5.31).

OSG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are OSG insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies OSG leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

Direct Sub-Reports: OSG RQD Cockpit OSG 12M Forecast OSG Earnings & Move OSG Dividends & DRIP OSG Insiders & 13F OSG Whale Options OSG Profit Sankey OSG News & Why