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Why OSBC Stock advanced +0.90% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$24.63 +0.90% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.62
Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.25B
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Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OSBC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is OSBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Old Second Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: OSBC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $24.63 (+0.90% 1D, market cap $1.25B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, OSBC ranks #348 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does OSBC compare to CTBI and MCB in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), OSBC carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, CTBI (Community Trust Bancorp Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 13.0x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $1.27B) and MCB (Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 16.8x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $1.20B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CTBI leads on earnings multiple (13.0x) while HBT leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OSBC?
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Per OSBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000357173), Old Second Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $80.3M in net income, and $117.8M in free cash flow against $6.90B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.62 (-0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OSBC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OSBC SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B$24.84+0% Next Q
71
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B-$24.84-0.3% Next Q
68
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$24.77-0.6% Next Q
66
CurrentGrade C$24.63+0.9% Hist 90D α
63
Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OSBC Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 63/100 (C) score, OSBC faces multiple-compression risk if 15.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($24.96) or 200D SMA ($22.52) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($25.18) toward Bear Floor ($19.64).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OSBC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OSBC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why OSBC Stock advanced +0.90% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) advanced +0.90% to $24.63, trading at 83% of its 52-week range ($17.54 – $26.06). Solid steady margins (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 16x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 83% of its 52-week range ($17.54 – $26.06) with RSI-14 at 48 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.6% around $24.63 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $117.8M annual free cash flow.
Live OSBC Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OSBC Tape Review)
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OSBC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +20.15%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $24.41H $24.63L $24.41C $24.63VOL 502.4K
RES: $25.37SUP: $23.53SMA50: $24.96SMA200: $22.52
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
OSBC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OSBC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OSBC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OSBC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OSBC)
Financials Rank #348 of 1096
⚔️ CTBI vs OSBC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (OSBC vs. CTBI, MCB, HBT, AMTB)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) ranks #348 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #517 by equity capitalization ($1.25B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CTBI leads on earnings valuation at 13.0x trailing P/E, while HBT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. HBT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with OSBC at 63/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSBC
ACTIVE
Old Second Bancorp Inc. | C | 63/100 | 15.6x | — | 9.0% | +0.90% | $1.25B | Benchmark Subject |
| CTBI Community Trust Bancorp Inc. | C- | 61/100 | 13.0x | — | 11.5% | +0.97% | $1.27B | /ctbi-vs-osbc → |
| MCB Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. | C | 65/100 | 16.8x | — | 9.6% | -0.20% | $1.20B | /mcb-vs-osbc → |
| HBT HBT Financial Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 17.4x | — | 12.5% | +1.10% | $1.34B | /hbt-vs-osbc → |
| AMTB Amerant Bancorp Inc. (Class A) | C+ | 66/100 | 22.4x | — | 5.6% | +0.84% | $1.17B | /amtb-vs-osbc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000357173In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $80.3M, operating cash flow of $122.3M, and free cash flow of $117.8M (-2.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, OSBC closed FY2025 with $6.90B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $80.3M | $122.3M | $117.8M | $6.90B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $85.3M | $131.5M | $120.7M | $5.65B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $91.7M | $116.4M | $116.4M | — | — |
3. OSBC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs OSBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Old Second Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: OSBC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $24.63 (+0.90% 1D, market cap $1.25B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, OSBC ranks #348 in composite RQD confidence.
How does OSBC compare to CTBI and MCB in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), OSBC carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, CTBI (Community Trust Bancorp Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 13.0x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $1.27B) and MCB (Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 16.8x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $1.20B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CTBI leads on earnings multiple (13.0x) while HBT leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OSBC?
Per OSBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000357173), Old Second Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $80.3M in net income, and $117.8M in free cash flow against $6.90B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is OSBC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
OSBC last traded at $24.63 (+0.90% on volume of 502,379 shares), positioning the stock -1.32% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.96) and +9.37% above its 200-day simple moving average ($22.52). Across its 52-week range of $17.54 to $26.06, OSBC sits at the 83.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($23.50 to $25.76).
OSBC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is OSBC stock moving today?
Why OSBC Stock advanced +0.90% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 16x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.