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Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$24.63 +0.90% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.62

Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.25B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.62 (-0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OSBC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OSBC SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 83% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$24.61+1.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$24.88-1.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$24.43+0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$24.63+1.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OSBC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, OSBC faces multiple-compression risk if 15.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($24.97) or 200D SMA ($22.50) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($25.63) toward Bear Floor ($19.99).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OSBC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OSBC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

41.530 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE83% OF RANGE

L: $18$24.63H: $26

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on OSBC

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

9.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 9.40% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (70)

26/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 16/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like OSBC

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OSBC Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

OSBC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.51%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $24.59H $24.84L $24.19C $24.63VOL 522.0K

RES: $25.38SUP: $23.55SMA50: $24.97SMA200: $22.50

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OSBC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OSBC Butterfly Map → + Track OSBC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OSBC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OSBC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OSBC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OSBC)

Financials Rank #250 of 1096 ⚔️ CTBI vs OSBC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (OSBC vs. CTBI, MCB, HBT, AMTB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) ranks #250 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #517 by equity capitalization ($1.25B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CTBI leads on earnings valuation at 13.0x trailing P/E, while HBT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. CTBI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with OSBC at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OSBC ACTIVE Old Second Bancorp Inc.	C+	67/100	15.6x	—	9.0%	+0.90%	$1.25B	Benchmark Subject
CTBI Community Trust Bancorp Inc.	B-	70/100	13.0x	—	11.5%	+0.97%	$1.27B	/ctbi-vs-osbc →
MCB Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.	C+	66/100	16.8x	—	9.6%	-0.20%	$1.20B	/mcb-vs-osbc →
HBT HBT Financial Inc.	B-	70/100	17.4x	—	12.5%	+1.10%	$1.34B	/hbt-vs-osbc →
AMTB Amerant Bancorp Inc. (Class A)	D+	58/100	22.4x	—	5.6%	+0.84%	$1.17B	/amtb-vs-osbc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000357173

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $80.3M, operating cash flow of $122.3M, and free cash flow of $117.8M (-2.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, OSBC closed FY2025 with $6.90B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$80.3M	$122.3M	$117.8M	$6.90B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$85.3M	$131.5M	$120.7M	$5.65B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$91.7M	$116.4M	$116.4M	—	—

3. OSBC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OSBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Old Second Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: OSBC) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $24.63 (+0.90% 1D, market cap $1.25B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, OSBC ranks #250 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OSBC compare to CTBI and MCB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), OSBC carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, CTBI (Community Trust Bancorp Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 13.0x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $1.27B) and MCB (Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 16.8x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $1.20B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CTBI leads on earnings multiple (13.0x) while HBT leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OSBC?

Per OSBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000357173), Old Second Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $80.3M in net income, and $117.8M in free cash flow against $6.90B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OSBC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OSBC last traded at $24.63 (+0.90% on volume of 502,379 shares), positioning the stock -1.36% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.97) and +9.47% above its 200-day simple moving average ($22.50). Across its 52-week range of $17.61 to $26.06, OSBC sits at the 83.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($23.50 to $25.76).

OSBC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell OSBC stock right now?

Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 16x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is OSBC's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

OSBC's 12-month base price target is $25.63 (range $19.99 to $30.24), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: OSBC RQD Cockpit OSBC 12M Forecast OSBC Earnings & Move OSBC Dividends & DRIP OSBC Insiders & 13F OSBC Whale Options OSBC Profit Sankey OSBC News & Why