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First Mid Bancshares Inc. (FMBH) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$51.13 +1.21% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $51.14

First Mid Bancshares Inc. (FMBH) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.36B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $51.15 (+0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 3.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FMBH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FMBH SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.1% FCF Margin ($124.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$48.52+2.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$49.73+2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$50.74+0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C$51.13+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FMBH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, FMBH faces multiple-compression risk if 14.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($49.97) or 200D SMA ($46.09) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($52.05) toward Bear Floor ($40.60).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FMBH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FMBH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

5330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE88% OF RANGE

L: $34$51.13H: $53

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on FMBH

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (65)

9.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 9.12% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (60)

24/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like FMBH

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FMBH Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FMBH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +21.48%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $51.63H $51.63L $50.16C $51.13VOL 129.6K

RES: $49.69SUP: $48.62SMA50: $49.97SMA200: $46.09

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FMBH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FMBH Butterfly Map → + Track FMBH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

6.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FMBH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FMBH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FMBH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FMBH)

Financials Rank #429 of 1096 ⚔️ HBT vs FMBH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FMBH vs. HBT, PEBO, WABC, BHRB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Mid Bancshares Inc. (FMBH) ranks #429 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #509 by equity capitalization ($1.36B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WABC leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while BHRB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.7% ROIC and — gross margin. PEBO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with FMBH at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FMBH ACTIVE First Mid Bancshares Inc.	C	62/100	14.8x	—	9.6%	+1.21%	$1.36B	Benchmark Subject
HBT HBT Financial Inc.	B-	70/100	17.4x	—	12.5%	+1.10%	$1.34B	/hbt-vs-fmbh →
PEBO Peoples Bancorp Inc.	B	72/100	13.1x	—	10.5%	+1.09%	$1.39B	/pebo-vs-fmbh →
WABC Westamerica Bancorporation	C	63/100	12.2x	—	12.4%	+0.79%	$1.42B	/wabc-vs-fmbh →
BHRB Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.	C-	61/100	12.2x	—	13.7%	+0.88%	$1.43B	/bhrb-vs-fmbh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000700565

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Mid Bancshares Inc. (FMBH) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $91.7M, operating cash flow of $130.9M, and free cash flow of $124.0M (+3.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, FMBH closed FY2025 with $7.97B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$91.7M	$130.9M	$124.0M	$7.97B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$78.9M	$124.4M	$119.5M	$7.52B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$68.9M	$72.4M	$72.4M	—	—

3. FMBH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FMBH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, First Mid Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: FMBH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $51.13 (+1.21% 1D, market cap $1.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FMBH ranks #429 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FMBH compare to HBT and PEBO in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FMBH carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, HBT (HBT Financial Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 17.4x, ROIC 12.5%, cap $1.34B) and PEBO (Peoples Bancorp Inc.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 13.1x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $1.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WABC leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while BHRB leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FMBH?

Per FMBH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000700565), First Mid Bancshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $91.7M in net income, and $124.0M in free cash flow against $7.97B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FMBH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FMBH last traded at $51.13 (+1.21% on volume of 154,941 shares), positioning the stock +2.32% above its 50-day simple moving average ($49.97) and +10.94% above its 200-day simple moving average ($46.09). Across its 52-week range of $34.16 to $53.36, FMBH sits at the 88.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($48.83 to $53.43).

FMBH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell FMBH stock right now?

First Mid Bancshares Inc. (FMBH) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (10% return on capital), mixed timing at 15x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is FMBH's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

FMBH's 12-month base price target is $52.05 (range $40.6 to $61.42), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: FMBH RQD Cockpit FMBH 12M Forecast FMBH Earnings & Move FMBH Dividends & DRIP FMBH Insiders & 13F FMBH Whale Options FMBH Profit Sankey FMBH News & Why