MARKET WIREReuters • 3h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why OPXS Stock advanced +1.32% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$9.23 +1.32% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.27
Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) earns a Roarable Rating of A- (Buy) with 84/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (29% profit margin, 30% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE A- • STRONG BUY
Cap $64.2M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.27 (+0.48%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 20/20 (A+) • 15.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 84/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 6% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 72.6% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSTRONG BUY • A-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk A-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+11.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OPXS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (84/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OPXS SCORES 84/100 (A-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+20/20 pts (24% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 15.6% FCF Margin ($6.4M FCF) & 29.2% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade A+$10.11-2.9% Next Q
92
Q2 (-2Q)Grade A$9.82-2.2% Next Q
89
Q3 (-1Q)Grade A$9.60-3.9% Next Q
87
CurrentGrade A-$9.23+8.9% Hist 90D α
84
Trajectory: A+ (92) → A- (84)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OPXS Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 84/100 (A-) score, OPXS faces multiple-compression risk if 12.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 26.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.15) or 200D SMA ($11.91) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.31) toward Bear Floor ($7.57).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OPXS• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OPXS Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why OPXS Stock advanced +1.32% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) advanced +1.32% to $9.23, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($9.04 – $17.29). High-quality cash engine (29% profit margin, 30% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($9.04 – $17.29) with RSI-14 at 29.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.5% around $9.23 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable A- (Buy) backed by 29.2% gross margin and $6.4M annual free cash flow.
Live OPXS Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 5h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 5h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 7h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 9h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 10h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OPXS Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
OPXS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.06%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $9.20H $9.35L $9.14C $9.23VOL 8.6K
RES: $9.93SUP: $8.54SMA50: $10.15SMA200: $11.91
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
OPXS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
3.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +21.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OPXS today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OPXS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OPXS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OPXS)
Technology Rank #7 of 714
⚔️ OPTX vs OPXS Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (OPXS vs. OPTX, RELL, DCM, MSAI)
Industry: Electronic Components (21 Tracked Issuers)Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) ranks #7 by composite RQD confidence (84/100, grade A-) and #551 by equity capitalization ($64.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OPXS leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while OPXS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.8% ROIC and 29.2% gross margin. OPXS currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 84/100 (A-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPXS
ACTIVE
Optex Systems Holdings Inc. | A- | 84/100 | 12.5x | 29.2% | 29.8% | +1.32% | $64.2M | Benchmark Subject |
| OPTX Syntec Optics Holdings Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 54/100 | — | 23.3% | -2.8% | +0.83% | $294.0M | /optx-vs-opxs → |
| RELL Richardson Electronics Ltd. | D | 47/100 | 48.8x | 31.2% | 4.1% | -0.81% | $311.4M | /rell-vs-opxs → |
| DCM DeFi Capital Markets Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | 16.6% | -35.0% | -6.70% | $10.1M | /dcm-vs-opxs → |
| MSAI MultiSensor AI Holdings Inc. | E | 27/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +2.24% | $7.6M | /msai-vs-opxs → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-28 • CIK 0001397016In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28), Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) reported GAAP revenue of $41.3M (+21.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $34.0M , and +61.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $5.1M, operating cash flow of $6.9M, and free cash flow of $6.4M (+485.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, OPXS closed FY2025 with $30.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.17, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-28 | $41.3M | $5.1M | $6.9M | $6.4M | $30.2M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-29 | $34.0M | $3.8M | $1.8M | $1.1M | $24.8M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-10-01 | $25.7M | $2.3M | -$296.0K | -$296.0K | — | — |
3. OPXS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs OPXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: OPXS) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 84/100 at a spot price of $9.23 (+1.32% 1D, market cap $64.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 20/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, OPXS ranks #7 in composite RQD confidence.
How does OPXS compare to OPTX and RELL in the Technology sector?
Within the Technology sector (Electronic Components), OPXS carries a Roarable A- (84/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.5x, gross margin of 29.2%, and ROIC of 29.8%. By comparison, OPTX (Syntec Optics Holdings Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.8%, cap $294.0M) and RELL (Richardson Electronics Ltd.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 48.8x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $311.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OPXS leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while OPXS leads on capital efficiency (29.8% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OPXS?
Per OPXS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28, CIK 0001397016), Optex Systems Holdings Inc. generated $41.3M in revenue (+21.6% YoY), $5.1M in net income, and $6.4M in free cash flow against $30.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (29% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is OPXS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
OPXS last traded at $9.23 (+1.32% on volume of 6,203 shares), positioning the stock -9.06% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.15) and -22.50% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.91). Across its 52-week range of $9.04 to $17.29, OPXS sits at the 2.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 29.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($8.63 to $9.83).
OPXS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is OPXS stock moving today?
Why OPXS Stock advanced +1.32% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (29% profit margin, 30% return on capital) with steady institutional support.