Stock Ratings / Technology / OPXS / forecast

OPTX (54) RELL (47) DCM (46) MSAI (27) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: What is OPXS's 12-month stock price target?

Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $10.31 (+11.7% from $9.23), with a bull-case target of $18.15 and a bear-case floor of $7.57.

Q: Is OPXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates OPXS A- (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 84/100.

$9.23 +1.32% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.27

Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) earns a Roarable Rating of A- (Buy) with 84/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (29% profit margin, 30% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 84/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 6% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 72.6% hit rate) →

ROARABLE A- • STRONG BUY Cap $64.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.27 (+0.48%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 20/20 (A+) • 15.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 84/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 6% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 72.6% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSTRONG BUY • A-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk A-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+11.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OPXS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (84/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OPXS SCORES 84/100 (A-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+20/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 15.6% FCF Margin ($6.4M FCF) & 29.2% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade A+$10.11-2.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade A$9.82-2.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade A$9.60-3.9% Next Q

Current

Grade A-$9.23+8.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: A+ (92) → A- (84)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OPXS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 84/100 (A-) score, OPXS faces multiple-compression risk if 12.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 26.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.15) or 200D SMA ($11.91) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.31) toward Bear Floor ($7.57).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OPXS• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OPXS Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 84%NO 16%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your OPXS Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $9.23: 1083.4 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $7.57

$8,202

$-1,798 (-18.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $10.31

$11,170

+$1,170 (+11.7%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $18.15

$19,664

+$9,664 (+96.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (43 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 32● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	OUTPERFORM	$11	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	STRONG BUY	$17	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$9	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OPXS Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

OPXS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.06%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $9.20H $9.35L $9.14C $9.23VOL 8.6K

RES: $9.93SUP: $8.54SMA50: $10.15SMA200: $11.91

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OPXS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OPXS Butterfly Map → + Track OPXS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +21.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OPXS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OPXS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OPXS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OPXS)

Technology Rank #7 of 714 ⚔️ OPTX vs OPXS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (OPXS vs. OPTX, RELL, DCM, MSAI)

Industry: Electronic Components (21 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) ranks #7 by composite RQD confidence (84/100, grade A-) and #551 by equity capitalization ($64.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OPXS leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while OPXS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.8% ROIC and 29.2% gross margin. OPXS currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 84/100 (A-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OPXS ACTIVE Optex Systems Holdings Inc.	A-	84/100	12.5x	29.2%	29.8%	+1.32%	$64.2M	Benchmark Subject
OPTX Syntec Optics Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D+	54/100	—	23.3%	-2.8%	+0.83%	$294.0M	/optx-vs-opxs →
RELL Richardson Electronics Ltd.	D	47/100	48.8x	31.2%	4.1%	-0.81%	$311.4M	/rell-vs-opxs →
DCM DeFi Capital Markets Inc.	D	46/100	—	16.6%	-35.0%	-6.70%	$10.1M	/dcm-vs-opxs →
MSAI MultiSensor AI Holdings Inc.	E	27/100	—	—	-35.0%	+2.24%	$7.6M	/msai-vs-opxs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-28 • CIK 0001397016

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28), Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) reported GAAP revenue of $41.3M (+21.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $34.0M , and +61.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $5.1M, operating cash flow of $6.9M, and free cash flow of $6.4M (+485.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, OPXS closed FY2025 with $30.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.17, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-28	$41.3M	$5.1M	$6.9M	$6.4M	$30.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-29	$34.0M	$3.8M	$1.8M	$1.1M	$24.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-10-01	$25.7M	$2.3M	-$296.0K	-$296.0K	—	—

3. OPXS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OPXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: OPXS) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 84/100 at a spot price of $9.23 (+1.32% 1D, market cap $64.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 20/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, OPXS ranks #7 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OPXS compare to OPTX and RELL in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Electronic Components), OPXS carries a Roarable A- (84/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.5x, gross margin of 29.2%, and ROIC of 29.8%. By comparison, OPTX (Syntec Optics Holdings Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.8%, cap $294.0M) and RELL (Richardson Electronics Ltd.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 48.8x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $311.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OPXS leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while OPXS leads on capital efficiency (29.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OPXS?

Per OPXS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28, CIK 0001397016), Optex Systems Holdings Inc. generated $41.3M in revenue (+21.6% YoY), $5.1M in net income, and $6.4M in free cash flow against $30.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (29% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OPXS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OPXS last traded at $9.23 (+1.32% on volume of 6,203 shares), positioning the stock -9.06% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.15) and -22.50% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.91). Across its 52-week range of $9.04 to $17.29, OPXS sits at the 2.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 29.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($8.63 to $9.83).

OPXS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is OPXS's 12-month stock price target?

Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $10.31 (+11.7% from $9.23), with a bull-case target of $18.15 and a bear-case floor of $7.57.

Is OPXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates OPXS A- (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 84/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: OPXS RQD Cockpit OPXS 12M Forecast OPXS Earnings & Move OPXS Dividends & DRIP OPXS Insiders & 13F OPXS Whale Options OPXS Profit Sankey OPXS News & Why