OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) (ONEW) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$10.31 +6.95% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.42

OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) (ONEW) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E β€’ RED ALERT Cap $160.7M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ONEW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: ONEW) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $10.31 (+6.95% 1D, market cap $160.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ONEW ranks #864 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ONEW compare to PRTS and HZO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), ONEW carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 22.8%, and ROIC of -11.2%. By comparison, PRTS (CarParts.com Inc.) holds a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $55.7M) and HZO (MarineMax Inc. (FL)) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.4%, cap $1.17B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONEW?
β–Ό

Per ONEW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001772921), OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) generated $1.87B in revenue (+5.6% YoY), -$114.6M in net income, and $79.7M in free cash flow against $1.44B in total assets and $325.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.42 (+1.06%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) β€’ 4.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 Β· E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ E
025507510031
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E Β· Rk E
Cash (9)Whales (5)SEC (8)Macro (4)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.1% Base Target
$17 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE ONEW RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ONEW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY ONEW SCORES 31/100 (E) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.3% FCF Margin ($79.7M FCF) & 22.8% Gross Margin

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.30 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 5/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (49.2) create a -16 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
23
Grade E$9.08+3.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
26
Grade E$9.38+2.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
28
Grade E$9.60+7.4% Next Q
Current
31
Grade E$10.31-9.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (23) β†’ E (31)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ONEW Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While ONEW currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.15) and Max Pain ($10.83) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $16.50.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ONEWβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œONEW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±12%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ONEW)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ONEW.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ONEW)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of ONEW's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ONEW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.98%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $9.58H $10.31L $9.58C $10.31VOL 125.6K
RES: $11.15SUP: $8.34SMA50: $10.15SMA200: $11.04
$14.62$13.01$11.39$9.78$8.17RES $11.15SUP $8.34$10.312026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ONEW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ONEW today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ONEW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ONEW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ONEW)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #864 of 1011 βš”οΈ PRTS vs ONEW Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ONEW vs. PRTS, HZO, AAP, AZO)

Industry: Auto & Home Supply Stores (6 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) (ONEW) ranks #864 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #716 by equity capitalization ($160.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AZO leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while AZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.8% ROIC and 52.6% gross margin. AZO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with ONEW at 31/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ONEW ACTIVE
OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)
E 31/100 β€” 22.8% -11.2% +6.95% $160.7M Benchmark Subject
PRTS
CarParts.com Inc.
E 21/100 β€” 32.8% -35.0% +7.97% $55.7M /prts-vs-onew β†’
HZO
MarineMax Inc. (FL)
D+ 52/100 β€” 32.5% 2.4% -0.11% $1.17B /hzo-vs-onew β†’
AAP
Advance Auto Parts Inc.
E 28/100 62.8x 43.4% -1.4% +6.23% $2.72B /aap-vs-onew β†’
AZO
AutoZone Inc.
C+ 67/100 20.2x 52.6% 55.8% +2.62% $51.02B /azo-vs-onew β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-09-30 β€’ CIK 0001772921

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) (ONEW) reported GAAP revenue of $1.87B (+5.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.77B , and -3.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$114.6M, operating cash flow of $91.8M, and free cash flow of $79.7M (+793.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ONEW closed FY2025 with $1.44B in total assets against $325.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.30, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $1.87B -$114.6M $91.8M $79.7M $1.44B $325.8M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $1.77B -$5.7M $34.8M $8.9M $1.61B $412.6M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $1.94B -$38.6M -$129.8M -$129.8M β€” β€”

3. ONEW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ONEW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: ONEW) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $10.31 (+6.95% 1D, market cap $160.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ONEW ranks #864 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ONEW compare to PRTS and HZO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), ONEW carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 22.8%, and ROIC of -11.2%. By comparison, PRTS (CarParts.com Inc.) holds a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $55.7M) and HZO (MarineMax Inc. (FL)) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.4%, cap $1.17B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONEW?

Per ONEW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001772921), OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) generated $1.87B in revenue (+5.6% YoY), -$114.6M in net income, and $79.7M in free cash flow against $1.44B in total assets and $325.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ONEW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ONEW last traded at $10.31 (+6.95% on volume of 162,744 shares), positioning the stock +1.58% above its 50-day simple moving average ($10.15) and -6.61% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.04). Across its 52-week range of $8.12 to $15.71, ONEW sits at the 28.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.0% ($9.07 to $11.55).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 31/100 (E) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ONEW β€” OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:42:24Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

ONEW carries an RQD Score of 31 and a letter grade of E, with the verdict label "Roarable Strong Sell β€” Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 (ROIC -11.2%; FCF yield 0%), Whale 13F Flow at 5/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 5/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 4/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 8/20 (Altman Z 1.3; Piotroski F 5/9; Debt/Equity 1.17).

For a prospective investor, the weakest pillars cluster around cash generation and institutional or insider conviction. A 0% FCF yield and -11.2% ROIC indicate that, on the sourced figures, the business is not currently earning a return on invested capital, which limits the valuation support a buyer can rely on. The Altman Z-Score of 1.3 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 sit in the zone the rating flags as forensic risk. The only sourced upside lever in the rating is a Beta of 1.0, which means the stock tracks the market rather than amplifying it; this is a neutral characteristic, not a return driver. The overall implication is that the rating frames ONEW as a name where downside risk is the dominant consideration on current evidence.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Auto & Home Supply Stores industry. Market capitalization is shown as $0.2B in the profile and $159.7M in market data. β€” for further business detail.

Net income was negative in all three reported periods, and operating income turned negative in FY 2025. Market data shows a gross margin of 22.8%, operating margin of -4.6%, and net margin of -6.1%, with ROIC of -11.2%. The Altman Z-Score is 1.3 and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, with Debt/Equity of 1.17. Debt reported in the SEC financials declined from $412.6M in FY 2024 to $325.8M in FY 2025.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case: Beta of 1.0 and a stock price of 9.58 sitting within a 52-week range of $8.12 to $15.72 mean the shares move with the market rather than amplifying its swings. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 (ROIC -11.2%, FCF yield β€”) and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $8.12 – $15.71 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: A 0% FCF yield, -11.2% ROIC, and an Altman Z-Score of 1.3 leave the company without sourced cash-generation or balance-sheet support for the current valuation. Investors must weigh current valuation against -4.6% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or proprietary signal links are recorded for ONEW. Investors should note that the absence of mapped links means this dataset cannot identify second-order bottlenecks; any such analysis would require sources not included here.

  • Key Question #1: What are the company's current EPS, P/E, and EV/EBITDA figures, given that all valuation multiples are unavailable?
  • Key Question #2: What is the cash balance in each reported period, since the cash field is N/A across all filings?
  • Key Question #3: What drove the swing from positive FY 2024 operating income to negative FY 2025 operating income?

ONEW Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) (ONEW) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to ONEW Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ONEW Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $10.31?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ONEW 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ONEW:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC Cross-Asset Macro Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.86 (+23.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Beta of 1.0 and a stock price of 9.58 sitting within a 52-week range of $8.12 to $15.72 mean the shares move with the market rather tha

The street is overcomplicating OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) (ONEW). Beta of 1.0 and a stock price of 9.58 sitting within a 52-week range of $8.12 to $15.72 mean the shares move with the market rather than amplifying its swings.. With an RQD score of 31/100 (E) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 8/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $10.41.

EarningsSniper πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” ONEW's 8/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.52 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $9.64

A 0% FCF yield, -11.2% ROIC, and an Altman Z-Score of 1.3 leave the company without sourced cash-generation or balance-sheet support fo

Careful chasing ONEW at $9.64. A 0% FCF yield, -11.2% ROIC, and an Altman Z-Score of 1.3 leave the company without sourced cash-generation or balance-sheet support for the current valuation.. Gross margin is 22.8%, but operating margin is -4.6%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $7.52 on multiple compression.

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