MARKET WIREBenzinga • 9d ago
Truist Securities Maintains Buy on OneWater Marine, Lowers Price Target to $12Truist Securities analyst Gregory Miller maintains OneWater Marine (NASDAQ:ONEW) with a Buy and lowers the price target from $13 to $12.
Why ONEW Stock advanced +1.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$9.58 +1.48% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.59
OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) (ONEW) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $159.7M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is ONEW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: ONEW) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $9.58 (+1.48% 1D, market cap $159.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ONEW ranks #856 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does ONEW compare to PRTS and HZO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), ONEW carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 22.8%, and ROIC of -11.2%. By comparison, PRTS (CarParts.com Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $69.5M) and HZO (MarineMax Inc. (FL)) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.4%, cap $1.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONEW?
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Per ONEW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001772921), OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) generated $1.87B in revenue (+5.6% YoY), -$114.6M in net income, and $79.7M in free cash flow against $1.44B in total assets and $325.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.59 (+0.08%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 4.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ONEW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ONEW SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (24% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.3% FCF Margin ($79.7M FCF) & 22.8% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (21% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$9.35+1.1% Next Q
30
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$9.45-0.8% Next Q
33
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$9.37+2.2% Next Q
35
CurrentGrade D-$9.58-7.8% Hist 90D α
38
Trajectory: E (30) → D- (38)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ONEW Turnaround Squeeze
While ONEW currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.25) and Max Pain ($10.06) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $16.50.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ONEW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ONEW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ONEW Stock advanced +1.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) (ONEW) advanced +1.48% to $9.58, trading at 19% of its 52-week range ($8.12 – $15.71). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-11% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 19% of its 52-week range ($8.12 – $15.71) with RSI-14 at 49 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $9.58 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 22.8% gross margin and $79.7M annual free cash flow.
Live ONEW Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ONEW)
- ✓Walkthrough of ONEW's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ONEW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.02%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $9.59H $9.70L $9.26C $9.58VOL 125.6K
RES: $11.23SUP: $8.39SMA50: $10.25SMA200: $11.08
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ONEW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +5.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ONEW today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ONEW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ONEW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ONEW)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #856 of 1011
⚔️ PRTS vs ONEW Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ONEW vs. PRTS, HZO, AAP, AZO)
Industry: Auto & Home Supply Stores (6 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) (ONEW) ranks #856 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #721 by equity capitalization ($159.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AZO leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while AZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.8% ROIC and 52.6% gross margin. AZO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with ONEW at 38/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONEW
ACTIVE
OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) | D- | 38/100 | — | 22.8% | -11.2% | +1.48% | $159.7M | Benchmark Subject |
| PRTS CarParts.com Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | 32.8% | -35.0% | +5.25% | $69.5M | /prts-vs-onew → |
| HZO MarineMax Inc. (FL) | D | 50/100 | — | 32.5% | 2.4% | +0.17% | $1.16B | /hzo-vs-onew → |
| AAP Advance Auto Parts Inc. | E | 28/100 | 62.8x | 43.4% | -1.4% | +0.31% | $2.76B | /aap-vs-onew → |
| AZO AutoZone Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 20.2x | 52.6% | 55.8% | -0.62% | $50.49B | /azo-vs-onew → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001772921In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) (ONEW) reported GAAP revenue of $1.87B (+5.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.77B , and -3.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$114.6M, operating cash flow of $91.8M, and free cash flow of $79.7M (+793.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ONEW closed FY2025 with $1.44B in total assets against $325.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.30, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $1.87B | -$114.6M | $91.8M | $79.7M | $1.44B | $325.8M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $1.77B | -$5.7M | $34.8M | $8.9M | $1.61B | $412.6M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $1.94B | -$38.6M | -$129.8M | -$129.8M | — | — |
3. ONEW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ONEW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: ONEW) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $9.58 (+1.48% 1D, market cap $159.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ONEW ranks #856 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ONEW compare to PRTS and HZO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), ONEW carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 22.8%, and ROIC of -11.2%. By comparison, PRTS (CarParts.com Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $69.5M) and HZO (MarineMax Inc. (FL)) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.4%, cap $1.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONEW?
Per ONEW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001772921), OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) generated $1.87B in revenue (+5.6% YoY), -$114.6M in net income, and $79.7M in free cash flow against $1.44B in total assets and $325.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ONEW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ONEW last traded at $9.58 (+1.48% on volume of 167,710 shares), positioning the stock -6.54% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.25) and -13.54% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.08). Across its 52-week range of $8.12 to $15.71, ONEW sits at the 19.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($8.38 to $10.78).
ONEW Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is ONEW stock moving today?
Why ONEW Stock advanced +1.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-11% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.