MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why OFRM Stock slipped -1.72% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$15.97 -1.72% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.89
Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $670.6M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.89 (-0.50%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk B-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OFRM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OFRM SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (27% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 15% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 35.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C+$16.94+2.5% Next Q
64
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$17.36-8.3% Next Q
61
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$15.92+0.3% Next Q
59
CurrentGrade D+$15.97-0.4% Hist 90D α
56
Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OFRM Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, OFRM faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($16.61) or 200D SMA ($17.49) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($15.83) toward Bear Floor ($12.35).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OFRM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OFRM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why OFRM Stock slipped -1.72% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) slipped -1.72% to $15.97, trading at 15% of its 52-week range ($14 – $27). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 15% of its 52-week range ($14 – $27) with RSI-14 at 35.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.8% around $15.97 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $18.8M annual free cash flow.
Live OFRM Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 6h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OFRM)
- ✓Walkthrough of OFRM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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OFRM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.72%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $16.23H $16.23L $15.00C $15.97VOL 385.0K
RES: $17.92SUP: $15.63SMA50: $16.61SMA200: $17.49
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
OFRM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OFRM today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OFRM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OFRM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OFRM)
Consumer Staples Rank #73 of 146
⚔️ SMPL vs OFRM Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (OFRM vs. SMPL, BRBR, SENEA, SENEB)
Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) ranks #73 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #78 by equity capitalization ($670.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BRBR leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while BRBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 46.3% ROIC and 33.3% gross margin. BRBR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with OFRM at 56/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFRM
ACTIVE
Once Upon a Farm PBC | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | — | -1.72% | $670.6M | Benchmark Subject |
| SMPL The Simply Good Foods Company | C | 63/100 | 8.9x | 36.2% | 6.4% | -1.66% | $925.9M | /smpl-vs-ofrm → |
| BRBR BellRing Brands Inc. | B | 75/100 | 4.9x | 33.3% | 46.3% | -2.48% | $1.05B | /brbr-vs-ofrm → |
| SENEA Seneca Foods Corp. (Class A) | D | 51/100 | 9.4x | — | 16.1% | +1.54% | $1.08B | /senea-vs-ofrm → |
| SENEB Seneca Foods Corp. (Class B) | D+ | 57/100 | 9.4x | — | 16.1% | 0.00% | $1.08B | /seneb-vs-ofrm → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001696556In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) reported GAAP revenue of $0 , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, OFRM closed FY2025 with $116.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $0 | — | — | $116.4M | — |
3. OFRM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs OFRM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Once Upon a Farm PBC (NYSE: OFRM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $15.97 (-1.72% 1D, market cap $670.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, OFRM ranks #73 in composite RQD confidence.
How does OFRM compare to SMPL and BRBR in the Consumer Staples sector?
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), OFRM carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, SMPL (The Simply Good Foods Company) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $925.9M) and BRBR (BellRing Brands Inc.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 46.3%, cap $1.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRBR leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while BRBR leads on capital efficiency (46.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OFRM?
Per OFRM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001696556), Once Upon a Farm PBC generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $116.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is OFRM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
OFRM last traded at $15.97 (-1.72% on volume of 207,372 shares), positioning the stock -3.85% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.61) and -8.69% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.49). Across its 52-week range of $14.00 to $27.00, OFRM sits at the 15.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.8% ($14.40 to $17.54).
OFRM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is OFRM stock moving today?
Why OFRM Stock slipped -1.72% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.