Stock Ratings / Materials / OEC / options

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Orion S.A. (OEC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$5.54 +1.28% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.54

Orion S.A. (OEC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $313.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.54 (+0.04%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 11.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OEC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OEC SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 11.9% FCF Margin ($215.8M FCF) & 19.9% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.1% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$5.77-7.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$5.34+2.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$5.45+1.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$5.54-1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OEC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While OEC currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.79) and Max Pain ($5.82) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.07.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OEC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OEC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±9.1%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (OEC)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for OEC.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OEC)

✓Walkthrough of OEC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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OEC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -26.33%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $5.53H $5.60L $5.43C $5.54VOL 280.6K

RES: $7.59SUP: $4.94SMA50: $5.79SMA200: $6.39

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OEC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OEC Butterfly Map → + Track OEC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

31.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -3.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OEC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OEC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OEC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OEC)

Materials Rank #139 of 270 ⚔️ ASPI vs OEC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (OEC vs. ASPI, GEVO, NL, ALTO)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orion S.A. (OEC) ranks #139 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #200 by equity capitalization ($313.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OEC leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and 30.4% gross margin. OEC currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OEC ACTIVE Orion S.A.	D+	52/100	—	19.9%	2.2%	+1.28%	$313.1M	Benchmark Subject
ASPI ASP Isotopes Inc.	D-	38/100	—	14.3%	-35.0%	+4.93%	$326.5M	/aspi-vs-oec →
GEVO Gevo Inc.	E	29/100	—	—	-2.9%	-0.82%	$299.2M	/gevo-vs-oec →
NL NLI Holdings Inc.	D	44/100	—	30.4%	3.4%	-0.71%	$341.8M	/nl-vs-oec →
ALTO Alto Ingredients Inc.	D	48/100	—	3.8%	2.0%	-0.27%	$283.1M	/alto-vs-oec →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001609804

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Orion S.A. (OEC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.81B (-3.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.88B , and -4.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$70.0M, operating cash flow of $215.8M, and free cash flow of $215.8M (+72.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, OEC closed FY2025 with $1.91B in total assets against $674.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.81B	-$70.0M	$215.8M	$215.8M	$1.91B	$674.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.88B	$44.0M	$125.3M	$125.3M	$1.86B	$647.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.89B	$104.0M	$345.9M	$345.9M	—	—

3. OEC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OEC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Orion S.A. (NYSE: OEC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $5.54 (+1.28% 1D, market cap $313.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, OEC ranks #139 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OEC compare to ASPI and GEVO in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), OEC carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 19.9%, and ROIC of 2.2%. By comparison, ASPI (ASP Isotopes Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $326.5M) and GEVO (Gevo Inc.) posts a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.9%, cap $299.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OEC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NL leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OEC?

Per OEC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001609804), Orion S.A. generated $1.81B in revenue (-3.8% YoY), -$70.0M in net income, and $215.8M in free cash flow against $1.91B in total assets and $674.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OEC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OEC last traded at $5.54 (+1.28% on volume of 403,926 shares), positioning the stock -4.32% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.79) and -13.30% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.39). Across its 52-week range of $4.35 to $8.64, OEC sits at the 27.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($5.04 to $6.04).

OEC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is OEC's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for OEC.

Direct Sub-Reports: OEC RQD Cockpit OEC 12M Forecast OEC Earnings & Move OEC Dividends & DRIP OEC Insiders & 13F OEC Whale Options OEC Profit Sankey OEC News & Why