Stock Ratings / Materials / OEC / forecast

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Orion S.A. (OEC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$5.54 +1.28% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.54

Orion S.A. (OEC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $313.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OEC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OEC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Orion S.A. (NYSE: OEC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $5.54 (+1.28% 1D, market cap $313.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, OEC ranks #139 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OEC compare to ASPI and GEVO in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), OEC carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 19.9%, and ROIC of 2.2%. By comparison, ASPI (ASP Isotopes Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $326.5M) and GEVO (Gevo Inc.) posts a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.9%, cap $299.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OEC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NL leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OEC?

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Per OEC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001609804), Orion S.A. generated $1.81B in revenue (-3.8% YoY), -$70.0M in net income, and $215.8M in free cash flow against $1.91B in total assets and $674.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.54 (+0.04%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 11.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OEC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OEC SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 11.9% FCF Margin ($215.8M FCF) & 19.9% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.1% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$5.77-7.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$5.34+2.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$5.45+1.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$5.54-1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OEC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While OEC currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.79) and Max Pain ($5.82) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.07.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OEC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OEC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your OEC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $5.54: 1805.1 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $4.20

$7,581

$-2,419 (-24.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $5.39

$9,729

$-271 (-2.7%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $9.07

$16,372

+$6,372 (+63.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$6	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$9	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$5	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OEC)

✓Walkthrough of OEC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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OEC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -26.33%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $5.53H $5.60L $5.43C $5.54VOL 280.6K

RES: $7.59SUP: $4.94SMA50: $5.79SMA200: $6.39

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OEC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OEC Butterfly Map → + Track OEC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

31.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -3.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OEC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OEC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OEC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OEC)

Materials Rank #139 of 270 ⚔️ ASPI vs OEC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (OEC vs. ASPI, GEVO, NL, ALTO)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orion S.A. (OEC) ranks #139 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #200 by equity capitalization ($313.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OEC leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and 30.4% gross margin. OEC currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OEC ACTIVE Orion S.A.	D+	52/100	—	19.9%	2.2%	+1.28%	$313.1M	Benchmark Subject
ASPI ASP Isotopes Inc.	D-	38/100	—	14.3%	-35.0%	+4.93%	$326.5M	/aspi-vs-oec →
GEVO Gevo Inc.	E	29/100	—	—	-2.9%	-0.82%	$299.2M	/gevo-vs-oec →
NL NLI Holdings Inc.	D	44/100	—	30.4%	3.4%	-0.71%	$341.8M	/nl-vs-oec →
ALTO Alto Ingredients Inc.	D	48/100	—	3.8%	2.0%	-0.27%	$283.1M	/alto-vs-oec →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001609804

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Orion S.A. (OEC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.81B (-3.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.88B , and -4.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$70.0M, operating cash flow of $215.8M, and free cash flow of $215.8M (+72.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, OEC closed FY2025 with $1.91B in total assets against $674.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.81B	-$70.0M	$215.8M	$215.8M	$1.91B	$674.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.88B	$44.0M	$125.3M	$125.3M	$1.86B	$647.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.89B	$104.0M	$345.9M	$345.9M	—	—

3. OEC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OEC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does OEC compare to ASPI and GEVO in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OEC?

Where is OEC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OEC last traded at $5.54 (+1.28% on volume of 403,926 shares), positioning the stock -4.32% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.79) and -13.30% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.39). Across its 52-week range of $4.35 to $8.64, OEC sits at the 27.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($5.04 to $6.04).

OEC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is OEC's 12-month stock price target?

Orion S.A. (OEC) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $5.39 (-2.7% from $5.54), with a bull-case target of $9.07 and a bear-case floor of $4.2.

Is OEC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates OEC D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 52/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: OEC RQD Cockpit OEC 12M Forecast OEC Earnings & Move OEC Dividends & DRIP OEC Insiders & 13F OEC Whale Options OEC Profit Sankey OEC News & Why