MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Oil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war - ReutersOil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war Reuters
Why OCUL Stock advanced +0.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$7.31 +0.27% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.30
Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (OCUL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $1.61B
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER
Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OCUL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is OCUL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼
As of 2026-11-01, Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (NASDAQ: OCUL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $7.31 (+0.27% 1D, market cap $1.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, OCUL ranks #740 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does OCUL compare to PAHC and URGN in the Health Care sector?
▼
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), OCUL carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 87.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PAHC (Phibro Animal Health Corporation (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 32.7x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $1.58B) and URGN (UroGen Pharma Ltd.) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.64B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAHC leads on earnings multiple (32.7x) while PAHC leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OCUL?
▼
Per OCUL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001393434), Ocular Therapeutix Inc. generated $52.0M in revenue (-18.5% YoY), -$265.9M in net income, and -$216.9M in free cash flow against $808.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.30 (-0.14%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OCUL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OCUL SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (27% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (27% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 13% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 42.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$7.54-8.9% Next Q
45
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$6.87-5.4% Next Q
42
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$6.50+12.5% Next Q
40
CurrentGrade D-$7.31-8.1% Hist 90D α
37
Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OCUL Turnaround Squeeze
While OCUL currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.81) and Max Pain ($7.68) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.26.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OCUL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OCUL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why OCUL Stock advanced +0.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (OCUL) advanced +0.27% to $7.31, trading at 13% of its 52-week range ($6 – $16.44). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 13% of its 52-week range ($6 – $16.44) with RSI-14 at 42.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $7.31 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 87.3% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live OCUL Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 3h ago
Nine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say - ReutersNine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
MARKET WIRECNBC • 7h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 7h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 8h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 10h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OCUL)
- ✓Walkthrough of OCUL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
OCUL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -21.99%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $7.27H $7.38L $6.92C $7.31VOL 2.63M
RES: $12.99SUP: $5.65SMA50: $8.81SMA200: $9.12
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
OCUL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -18.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OCUL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OCUL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OCUL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OCUL)
Health Care Rank #740 of 1016
⚔️ PAHC vs OCUL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (OCUL vs. PAHC, URGN, GPCR, RARE)
Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (OCUL) ranks #740 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #298 by equity capitalization ($1.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PAHC leads on earnings valuation at 32.7x trailing P/E, while PAHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and 30.9% gross margin. PAHC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with OCUL at 37/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCUL
ACTIVE
Ocular Therapeutix Inc. | D- | 37/100 | — | 87.3% | -35.0% | +0.27% | $1.61B | Benchmark Subject |
| PAHC Phibro Animal Health Corporation (Class A) | C+ | 68/100 | 32.7x | 30.9% | 9.9% | +2.59% | $1.58B | /pahc-vs-ocul → |
| URGN UroGen Pharma Ltd. | E | 24/100 | — | 88.7% | -35.0% | -0.80% | $1.64B | /urgn-vs-ocul → |
| GPCR Structure Therapeutics Inc. | D- | 42/100 | — | — | -19.5% | +2.14% | $1.56B | /gpcr-vs-ocul → |
| RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. | E | 26/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -2.44% | $1.65B | /rare-vs-ocul → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001393434In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (OCUL) reported GAAP revenue of $52.0M (-18.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $63.7M , and -11.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$265.9M, operating cash flow of -$204.9M, and free cash flow of -$216.9M (-59.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, OCUL closed FY2025 with $808.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.31, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $52.0M | -$265.9M | -$204.9M | -$216.9M | $808.1M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $63.7M | -$193.5M | -$134.7M | -$136.0M | $457.9M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $58.4M | -$80.7M | -$70.2M | -$70.2M | — | — |
3. OCUL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs OCUL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (NASDAQ: OCUL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $7.31 (+0.27% 1D, market cap $1.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, OCUL ranks #740 in composite RQD confidence.
How does OCUL compare to PAHC and URGN in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), OCUL carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 87.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PAHC (Phibro Animal Health Corporation (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 32.7x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $1.58B) and URGN (UroGen Pharma Ltd.) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.64B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAHC leads on earnings multiple (32.7x) while PAHC leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OCUL?
Per OCUL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001393434), Ocular Therapeutix Inc. generated $52.0M in revenue (-18.5% YoY), -$265.9M in net income, and -$216.9M in free cash flow against $808.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is OCUL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
OCUL last traded at $7.31 (+0.27% on volume of 2,210,957 shares), positioning the stock -17.03% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.81) and -19.85% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.12). Across its 52-week range of $6.00 to $16.44, OCUL sits at the 12.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($6.40 to $8.22).
OCUL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is OCUL stock moving today?
Why OCUL Stock advanced +0.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.