Stock Ratings / Health Care / OCUL / financials

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Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (OCUL) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$7.31 +0.27% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.30

Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (OCUL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.61B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.30 (-0.14%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OCUL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OCUL SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 13% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 42.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$7.54-8.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$6.87-5.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$6.50+12.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$7.31-8.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OCUL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While OCUL currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.81) and Max Pain ($7.68) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.26.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OCUL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OCUL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How OCUL Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $58.4M

FY24

Rev $63.7M

FY25

Rev $52.0M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$52.0M	87.3%	-80%	-$265.9M	-$216.9M	-45%
FY 2024	$63.7M	91.2%	-80%	-$193.5M	-$136.0M	-45%
FY 2023	$58.4M	87.3%	-80%	-$80.7M	-$70.2M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OCUL)

✓Walkthrough of OCUL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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OCUL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -21.99%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $7.27H $7.38L $6.92C $7.31VOL 2.63M

RES: $12.99SUP: $5.65SMA50: $8.81SMA200: $9.12

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OCUL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OCUL Butterfly Map → + Track OCUL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -18.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OCUL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OCUL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OCUL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OCUL)

Health Care Rank #740 of 1016 ⚔️ PAHC vs OCUL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (OCUL vs. PAHC, URGN, GPCR, RARE)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (OCUL) ranks #740 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #298 by equity capitalization ($1.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PAHC leads on earnings valuation at 32.7x trailing P/E, while PAHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and 30.9% gross margin. PAHC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with OCUL at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OCUL ACTIVE Ocular Therapeutix Inc.	D-	37/100	—	87.3%	-35.0%	+0.27%	$1.61B	Benchmark Subject
PAHC Phibro Animal Health Corporation (Class A)	C+	68/100	32.7x	30.9%	9.9%	+2.59%	$1.58B	/pahc-vs-ocul →
URGN UroGen Pharma Ltd.	E	24/100	—	88.7%	-35.0%	-0.80%	$1.64B	/urgn-vs-ocul →
GPCR Structure Therapeutics Inc.	D-	42/100	—	—	-19.5%	+2.14%	$1.56B	/gpcr-vs-ocul →
RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.	E	26/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.44%	$1.65B	/rare-vs-ocul →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001393434

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (OCUL) reported GAAP revenue of $52.0M (-18.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $63.7M , and -11.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$265.9M, operating cash flow of -$204.9M, and free cash flow of -$216.9M (-59.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, OCUL closed FY2025 with $808.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.31, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$52.0M	-$265.9M	-$204.9M	-$216.9M	$808.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$63.7M	-$193.5M	-$134.7M	-$136.0M	$457.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$58.4M	-$80.7M	-$70.2M	-$70.2M	—	—

3. OCUL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OCUL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (NASDAQ: OCUL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $7.31 (+0.27% 1D, market cap $1.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, OCUL ranks #740 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OCUL compare to PAHC and URGN in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), OCUL carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 87.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PAHC (Phibro Animal Health Corporation (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 32.7x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $1.58B) and URGN (UroGen Pharma Ltd.) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.64B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAHC leads on earnings multiple (32.7x) while PAHC leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OCUL?

Per OCUL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001393434), Ocular Therapeutix Inc. generated $52.0M in revenue (-18.5% YoY), -$265.9M in net income, and -$216.9M in free cash flow against $808.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OCUL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OCUL last traded at $7.31 (+0.27% on volume of 2,210,957 shares), positioning the stock -17.03% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.81) and -19.85% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.12). Across its 52-week range of $6.00 to $16.44, OCUL sits at the 12.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($6.40 to $8.22).

OCUL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (OCUL)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), OCUL converted $52.0M of revenue into a 87.3% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

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