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Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$16.78 -2.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 26/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.65B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RARE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.8%

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

49.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

0.20>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

3 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE15% OF RANGE

L: $13$16.78H: $40

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 3 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 10 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 13 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on RARE

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (15)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (25)

Altman-Z 0.20 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (30)

10/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like RARE

✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RARE)

✓Walkthrough of RARE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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RARE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -32.04%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $16.64H $16.93L $15.92C $16.78VOL 2.33M

RES: $11.57SUP: $9.02SMA50: $17.01SMA200: $22.90

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RARE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RARE Butterfly Map → + Track RARE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RARE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RARE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RARE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RARE)

Health Care Rank #984 of 1016 ⚔️ URGN vs RARE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (RARE vs. URGN, NUVB, ANIP, CMPS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) ranks #984 by composite RQD confidence (26/100, grade E) and #293 by equity capitalization ($1.65B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ANIP leads on earnings valuation at 21.5x trailing P/E, while ANIP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.0% ROIC and — gross margin. ANIP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with RARE at 26/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
RARE ACTIVE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.	E	26/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.44%	$1.65B	Benchmark Subject
URGN UroGen Pharma Ltd.	E	24/100	—	88.7%	-35.0%	-0.80%	$1.64B	/urgn-vs-rare →
NUVB Nuvation Bio Inc. (Class A)	E	29/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.92%	$1.67B	/nuvb-vs-rare →
ANIP ANI Pharmaceuticals Inc.	B-	70/100	21.5x	—	16.0%	+2.02%	$1.68B	/anip-vs-rare →
CMPS COMPASS Pathways Plc American Depository Shares	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.73%	$1.69B	/cmps-vs-rare →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001515673

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) reported GAAP revenue of $673.0M (+20.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $560.0M , and +55.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$575.0M, operating cash flow of -$466.0M, and free cash flow of -$472.0M (-12.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, RARE closed FY2025 with $1.53B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$673.0M	-$575.0M	-$466.0M	-$472.0M	$1.53B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$560.0M	-$569.0M	-$414.0M	-$421.0M	$1.50B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$434.0M	-$607.0M	-$475.0M	-$475.0M	—	—

3. RARE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RARE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: RARE) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 26/100 at a spot price of $16.78 (-2.44% 1D, market cap $1.65B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, RARE ranks #984 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RARE compare to URGN and NUVB in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), RARE carries a Roarable E (26/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, URGN (UroGen Pharma Ltd.) holds a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.64B) and NUVB (Nuvation Bio Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.67B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ANIP leads on earnings multiple (21.5x) while ANIP leads on capital efficiency (16.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RARE?

Per RARE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001515673), Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. generated $673.0M in revenue (+20.2% YoY), -$575.0M in net income, and -$472.0M in free cash flow against $1.53B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RARE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RARE last traded at $16.78 (-2.44% on volume of 2,803,830 shares), positioning the stock -1.35% below its 50-day simple moving average ($17.01) and -26.72% below its 200-day simple moving average ($22.90). Across its 52-week range of $12.73 to $39.89, RARE sits at the 14.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.8% ($14.97 to $18.59).

RARE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell RARE stock right now?

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) currently earns a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell — SELL) with 26/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is RARE's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

RARE's 12-month base price target is $14.36 (range $11.2 to $41.88), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: RARE RQD Cockpit RARE 12M Forecast RARE Earnings & Move RARE Dividends & DRIP RARE Insiders & 13F RARE Whale Options RARE Profit Sankey RARE News & Why