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Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (OCUL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$7.31 +0.27% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (OCUL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.61B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OCUL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

42.330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

4.31>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

3 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE13% OF RANGE

L: $6$7.31H: $16

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 13 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on OCUL

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (30)

-35.0% ROIC with 87.3% gross margin and -13.51% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 4.31 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (38)

13/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like OCUL

✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OCUL)

✓Walkthrough of OCUL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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OCUL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -21.99%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $7.27H $7.38L $6.92C $7.31VOL 2.63M

RES: $12.99SUP: $5.65SMA50: $8.81SMA200: $9.12

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OCUL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OCUL Butterfly Map → + Track OCUL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -18.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OCUL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OCUL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OCUL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OCUL)

Health Care Rank #740 of 1016 ⚔️ PAHC vs OCUL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (OCUL vs. PAHC, URGN, GPCR, RARE)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (OCUL) ranks #740 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #298 by equity capitalization ($1.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PAHC leads on earnings valuation at 32.7x trailing P/E, while PAHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and 30.9% gross margin. PAHC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with OCUL at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OCUL ACTIVE Ocular Therapeutix Inc.	D-	37/100	—	87.3%	-35.0%	+0.27%	$1.61B	Benchmark Subject
PAHC Phibro Animal Health Corporation (Class A)	C+	68/100	32.7x	30.9%	9.9%	+2.59%	$1.58B	/pahc-vs-ocul →
URGN UroGen Pharma Ltd.	E	24/100	—	88.7%	-35.0%	-0.80%	$1.64B	/urgn-vs-ocul →
GPCR Structure Therapeutics Inc.	D-	42/100	—	—	-19.5%	+2.14%	$1.56B	/gpcr-vs-ocul →
RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.	E	26/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.44%	$1.65B	/rare-vs-ocul →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001393434

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (OCUL) reported GAAP revenue of $52.0M (-18.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $63.7M , and -11.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$265.9M, operating cash flow of -$204.9M, and free cash flow of -$216.9M (-59.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, OCUL closed FY2025 with $808.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.31, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$52.0M	-$265.9M	-$204.9M	-$216.9M	$808.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$63.7M	-$193.5M	-$134.7M	-$136.0M	$457.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$58.4M	-$80.7M	-$70.2M	-$70.2M	—	—

3. OCUL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OCUL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (NASDAQ: OCUL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $7.31 (+0.27% 1D, market cap $1.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, OCUL ranks #740 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OCUL compare to PAHC and URGN in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), OCUL carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 87.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PAHC (Phibro Animal Health Corporation (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 32.7x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $1.58B) and URGN (UroGen Pharma Ltd.) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.64B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAHC leads on earnings multiple (32.7x) while PAHC leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OCUL?

Per OCUL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001393434), Ocular Therapeutix Inc. generated $52.0M in revenue (-18.5% YoY), -$265.9M in net income, and -$216.9M in free cash flow against $808.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OCUL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OCUL last traded at $7.31 (+0.27% on volume of 2,210,957 shares), positioning the stock -17.03% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.81) and -19.85% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.12). Across its 52-week range of $6.00 to $16.44, OCUL sits at the 12.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($6.40 to $8.22).

OCUL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell OCUL stock right now?

Ocular Therapeutix Inc. (OCUL) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 37/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is OCUL's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

OCUL's 12-month base price target is $6.62 (range $5.16 to $17.26), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: OCUL RQD Cockpit OCUL 12M Forecast OCUL Earnings & Move OCUL Dividends & DRIP OCUL Insiders & 13F OCUL Whale Options OCUL Profit Sankey OCUL News & Why