MARKET WIREReuters • 4h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
Why OBT Stock advanced +1.26% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$38.58 +1.26% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.59
Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $517.3M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is OBT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Orange County Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: OBT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $38.58 (+1.26% 1D, market cap $517.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, OBT ranks #229 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does OBT compare to WTBA and COFS in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), OBT carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.6%. By comparison, WTBA (West Bancorporation) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 15.7x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $512.0M) and COFS (ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $523.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OBT leads on earnings multiple (12.4x) while OBT leads on capital efficiency (14.6% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OBT?
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Per OBT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001754226), Orange County Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $41.6M in net income, and $41.3M in free cash flow against $2.66B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.60 (+0.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OBT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OBT SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (22% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 88% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 60.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$36.93+0.7% Next Q
60
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$37.19+3% Next Q
63
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$38.31+0.7% Next Q
65
CurrentGrade C+$38.58+1.8% Hist 90D α
68
Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OBT Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, OBT faces multiple-compression risk if 12.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.77) or 200D SMA ($35.46) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.32) toward Bear Floor ($31.45).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OBT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OBT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why OBT Stock advanced +1.26% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) advanced +1.26% to $38.58, trading at 88% of its 52-week range ($24.5 – $40.49). Solid steady margins (15% return on capital), mixed timing at 12x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 88% of its 52-week range ($24.5 – $40.49) with RSI-14 at 60.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.7% around $38.58 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $41.3M annual free cash flow.
Live OBT Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 4h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
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MARKET WIRECNBC • 9h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 9h ago
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RISK WATCHReuters • 10h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 12h ago
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OBT Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
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OBT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.14%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-10-30O $39.06H $39.40L $38.29C $38.58VOL 65.5K
RES: $39.86SUP: $35.93SMA50: $37.77SMA200: $35.46
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
OBT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
3.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OBT today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OBT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OBT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OBT)
Financials Rank #229 of 1096
⚔️ WTBA vs OBT Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (OBT vs. WTBA, COFS, CZNC, PBAM)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) ranks #229 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #694 by equity capitalization ($517.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OBT leads on earnings valuation at 12.4x trailing P/E, while OBT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.6% ROIC and — gross margin. OBT currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBT
ACTIVE
Orange County Bancorp Inc. | C+ | 68/100 | 12.4x | — | 14.6% | +1.26% | $517.3M | Benchmark Subject |
| WTBA West Bancorporation | C | 63/100 | 15.7x | — | 12.2% | -1.38% | $512.0M | /wtba-vs-obt → |
| COFS ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc. | C+ | 66/100 | 18.6x | — | 6.1% | +1.72% | $523.4M | /cofs-vs-obt → |
| CZNC Citizens & Northern Corp | C+ | 67/100 | 21.3x | — | 6.9% | +1.20% | $498.9M | /cznc-vs-obt → |
| PBAM Private Bancorp of America Inc. | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | +0.22% | $490.2M | /pbam-vs-obt → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001754226In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $41.6M, operating cash flow of $43.8M, and free cash flow of $41.3M (+25.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, OBT closed FY2025 with $2.66B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $41.6M | $43.8M | $41.3M | $2.66B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $27.9M | $34.6M | $32.9M | $2.51B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $29.5M | $44.5M | $44.5M | — | — |
3. OBT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs OBT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Orange County Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: OBT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $38.58 (+1.26% 1D, market cap $517.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, OBT ranks #229 in composite RQD confidence.
How does OBT compare to WTBA and COFS in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), OBT carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.6%. By comparison, WTBA (West Bancorporation) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 15.7x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $512.0M) and COFS (ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $523.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OBT leads on earnings multiple (12.4x) while OBT leads on capital efficiency (14.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OBT?
Per OBT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001754226), Orange County Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $41.6M in net income, and $41.3M in free cash flow against $2.66B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is OBT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
OBT last traded at $38.58 (+1.26% on volume of 81,588 shares), positioning the stock +2.14% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.77) and +8.80% above its 200-day simple moving average ($35.46). Across its 52-week range of $24.50 to $40.49, OBT sits at the 88.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.7% ($36.38 to $40.78).
OBT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is OBT stock moving today?
Why OBT Stock advanced +1.26% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (15% return on capital), mixed timing at 12x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.