Stock Ratings / Financials / OBT / earnings

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Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.7% Move

$38.58 +1.26% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.59

Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $517.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.60 (+0.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OBT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OBT SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 88% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 60.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$36.93+0.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$37.19+3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$38.31+0.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$38.58+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OBT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, OBT faces multiple-compression risk if 12.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.77) or 200D SMA ($35.46) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.32) toward Bear Floor ($31.45).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OBT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OBT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.7% Swing Band

±$2.20 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

OBT Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 68/100

Trailing EPS: $3.10 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (68/100)Model Risk Weight (32/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$41.6M	$41.3M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$27.9M	$32.9M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$29.5M	$44.5M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating OBT & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on OBT
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

OBT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.14%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-10-30O $39.06H $39.40L $38.29C $38.58VOL 65.5K

RES: $39.86SUP: $35.93SMA50: $37.77SMA200: $35.46

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OBT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OBT Butterfly Map → + Track OBT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OBT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OBT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OBT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OBT)

Financials Rank #229 of 1096 ⚔️ WTBA vs OBT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (OBT vs. WTBA, COFS, CZNC, PBAM)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) ranks #229 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #694 by equity capitalization ($517.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OBT leads on earnings valuation at 12.4x trailing P/E, while OBT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.6% ROIC and — gross margin. OBT currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OBT ACTIVE Orange County Bancorp Inc.	C+	68/100	12.4x	—	14.6%	+1.26%	$517.3M	Benchmark Subject
WTBA West Bancorporation	C	63/100	15.7x	—	12.2%	-1.38%	$512.0M	/wtba-vs-obt →
COFS ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc.	C+	66/100	18.6x	—	6.1%	+1.72%	$523.4M	/cofs-vs-obt →
CZNC Citizens & Northern Corp	C+	67/100	21.3x	—	6.9%	+1.20%	$498.9M	/cznc-vs-obt →
PBAM Private Bancorp of America Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	—	+0.22%	$490.2M	/pbam-vs-obt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001754226

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $41.6M, operating cash flow of $43.8M, and free cash flow of $41.3M (+25.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, OBT closed FY2025 with $2.66B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$41.6M	$43.8M	$41.3M	$2.66B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$27.9M	$34.6M	$32.9M	$2.51B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$29.5M	$44.5M	$44.5M	—	—

3. OBT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OBT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Orange County Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: OBT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $38.58 (+1.26% 1D, market cap $517.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, OBT ranks #229 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OBT compare to WTBA and COFS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), OBT carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.6%. By comparison, WTBA (West Bancorporation) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 15.7x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $512.0M) and COFS (ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $523.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OBT leads on earnings multiple (12.4x) while OBT leads on capital efficiency (14.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OBT?

Per OBT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001754226), Orange County Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $41.6M in net income, and $41.3M in free cash flow against $2.66B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OBT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OBT last traded at $38.58 (+1.26% on volume of 81,588 shares), positioning the stock +2.14% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.77) and +8.80% above its 200-day simple moving average ($35.46). Across its 52-week range of $24.50 to $40.49, OBT sits at the 88.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.7% ($36.38 to $40.78).

OBT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is OBT's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is OBT stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±5.7% event move for OBT, spanning a range between $36.38 and $40.78.

Direct Sub-Reports: OBT RQD Cockpit OBT 12M Forecast OBT Earnings & Move OBT Dividends & DRIP OBT Insiders & 13F OBT Whale Options OBT Profit Sankey OBT News & Why