MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why NXRT Stock surged +2.75% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$18.32 +2.75% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.38
NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. (NXRT) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $468.1M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.37 (+0.30%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 33.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NXRT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NXRT SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 33.3% FCF Margin ($83.6M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 5% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 39.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 12 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$19.35-5.1% Next Q
60
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$18.37+2.1% Next Q
57
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$18.76-2.3% Next Q
55
CurrentGrade D+$18.32-1.1% Hist 90D α
52
Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NXRT Turnaround Squeeze
While NXRT currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.77) and Max Pain ($19.24) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $33.98.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NXRT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NXRT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why NXRT Stock surged +2.75% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. (NXRT) surged +2.75% to $18.32, trading at 5% of its 52-week range ($17.62 – $32.36). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 5% of its 52-week range ($17.62 – $32.36) with RSI-14 at 39.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.3% around $18.32 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $83.6M annual free cash flow.
Live NXRT Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NXRT)
- ✓Walkthrough of NXRT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NXRT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -36.59%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $18.58H $18.65L $17.98C $18.32VOL 229.2K
RES: $27.40SUP: $16.08SMA50: $20.77SMA200: $25.91
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
NXRT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
14.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -3.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NXRT today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NXRT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NXRT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NXRT)
Financials Rank #767 of 1096
⚔️ ILPT vs NXRT Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NXRT vs. ILPT, FBRT, FVR, TRTX)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. (NXRT) ranks #767 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #719 by equity capitalization ($468.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FBRT leads on earnings valuation at 5.5x trailing P/E, while NXRT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.8% ROIC and — gross margin. TRTX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with NXRT at 52/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXRT
ACTIVE
NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. | D+ | 52/100 | — | — | 7.8% | +2.75% | $468.1M | Benchmark Subject |
| ILPT Industrial Logistics Properties Trust of | D+ | 54/100 | — | — | -13.5% | -4.90% | $467.5M | /ilpt-vs-nxrt → |
| FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust Inc. | C | 63/100 | 5.5x | — | 5.8% | -2.84% | $466.1M | /fbrt-vs-nxrt → |
| FVR FrontView REIT Inc. | D | 49/100 | — | — | -1.2% | +4.27% | $453.4M | /fvr-vs-nxrt → |
| TRTX TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. | C | 64/100 | 8.1x | — | 5.6% | -1.08% | $486.8M | /trtx-vs-nxrt → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001620393In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. (NXRT) reported GAAP revenue of $251.3M (-3.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $259.7M , and -9.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$32.2M, operating cash flow of $83.6M, and free cash flow of $83.6M (+13.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, NXRT closed FY2025 with $1.89B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $251.3M | -$32.2M | $83.6M | $83.6M | $1.89B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $259.7M | $1.1M | $73.6M | $73.6M | $1.91B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $277.5M | $44.4M | $96.6M | $96.6M | — | — |
3. NXRT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs NXRT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. (NYSE: NXRT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $18.32 (+2.75% 1D, market cap $468.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NXRT ranks #767 in composite RQD confidence.
How does NXRT compare to ILPT and FBRT in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), NXRT carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.8%. By comparison, ILPT (Industrial Logistics Properties Trust of) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.5%, cap $467.5M) and FBRT (Franklin BSP Realty Trust Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 5.5x, ROIC 5.8%, cap $466.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FBRT leads on earnings multiple (5.5x) while NXRT leads on capital efficiency (7.8% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NXRT?
Per NXRT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001620393), NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. generated $251.3M in revenue (-3.2% YoY), -$32.2M in net income, and $83.6M in free cash flow against $1.89B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is NXRT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
NXRT last traded at $18.32 (+2.75% on volume of 421,170 shares), positioning the stock -11.80% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.77) and -29.29% below its 200-day simple moving average ($25.91). Across its 52-week range of $17.62 to $32.36, NXRT sits at the 4.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.3% ($16.80 to $19.84).
NXRT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is NXRT stock moving today?
Why NXRT Stock surged +2.75% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.