Stock Ratings / Financials / NXRT / forecast

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NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. (NXRT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$18.32 +2.75% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.38

NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. (NXRT) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $468.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.37 (+0.30%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 33.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NXRT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NXRT SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 33.3% FCF Margin ($83.6M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 5% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 39.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 12 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$19.35-5.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$18.37+2.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$18.76-2.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$18.32-1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NXRT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NXRT currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.77) and Max Pain ($19.24) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $33.98.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NXRT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NXRT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your NXRT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $18.32: 545.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $13.91

$7,593

$-2,407 (-24.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $17.83

$9,733

$-267 (-2.7%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $33.98

$18,548

+$8,548 (+85.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$19	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$32	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$16	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NXRT)

✓Walkthrough of NXRT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

NXRT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -36.59%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $18.58H $18.65L $17.98C $18.32VOL 229.2K

RES: $27.40SUP: $16.08SMA50: $20.77SMA200: $25.91

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NXRT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NXRT Butterfly Map → + Track NXRT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

14.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -3.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NXRT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NXRT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NXRT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NXRT)

Financials Rank #767 of 1096 ⚔️ ILPT vs NXRT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NXRT vs. ILPT, FBRT, FVR, TRTX)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. (NXRT) ranks #767 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #719 by equity capitalization ($468.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FBRT leads on earnings valuation at 5.5x trailing P/E, while NXRT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.8% ROIC and — gross margin. TRTX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with NXRT at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NXRT ACTIVE NexPoint Residential Trust Inc.	D+	52/100	—	—	7.8%	+2.75%	$468.1M	Benchmark Subject
ILPT Industrial Logistics Properties Trust of	D+	54/100	—	—	-13.5%	-4.90%	$467.5M	/ilpt-vs-nxrt →
FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust Inc.	C	63/100	5.5x	—	5.8%	-2.84%	$466.1M	/fbrt-vs-nxrt →
FVR FrontView REIT Inc.	D	49/100	—	—	-1.2%	+4.27%	$453.4M	/fvr-vs-nxrt →
TRTX TPG RE Finance Trust Inc.	C	64/100	8.1x	—	5.6%	-1.08%	$486.8M	/trtx-vs-nxrt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001620393

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. (NXRT) reported GAAP revenue of $251.3M (-3.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $259.7M , and -9.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$32.2M, operating cash flow of $83.6M, and free cash flow of $83.6M (+13.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, NXRT closed FY2025 with $1.89B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$251.3M	-$32.2M	$83.6M	$83.6M	$1.89B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$259.7M	$1.1M	$73.6M	$73.6M	$1.91B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$277.5M	$44.4M	$96.6M	$96.6M	—	—

3. NXRT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NXRT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. (NYSE: NXRT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $18.32 (+2.75% 1D, market cap $468.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NXRT ranks #767 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NXRT compare to ILPT and FBRT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), NXRT carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.8%. By comparison, ILPT (Industrial Logistics Properties Trust of) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.5%, cap $467.5M) and FBRT (Franklin BSP Realty Trust Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 5.5x, ROIC 5.8%, cap $466.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FBRT leads on earnings multiple (5.5x) while NXRT leads on capital efficiency (7.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NXRT?

Per NXRT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001620393), NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. generated $251.3M in revenue (-3.2% YoY), -$32.2M in net income, and $83.6M in free cash flow against $1.89B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NXRT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NXRT last traded at $18.32 (+2.75% on volume of 421,170 shares), positioning the stock -11.80% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.77) and -29.29% below its 200-day simple moving average ($25.91). Across its 52-week range of $17.62 to $32.36, NXRT sits at the 4.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.3% ($16.80 to $19.84).

NXRT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is NXRT's 12-month stock price target?

NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. (NXRT) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $17.83 (-2.7% from $18.32), with a bull-case target of $33.98 and a bear-case floor of $13.91.

Is NXRT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates NXRT D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 52/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: NXRT RQD Cockpit NXRT 12M Forecast NXRT Earnings & Move NXRT Dividends & DRIP NXRT Insiders & 13F NXRT Whale Options NXRT Profit Sankey NXRT News & Why