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Why NTCT Stock slipped -0.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$39.35 -0.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.24
NetScout Systems Inc. (NTCT) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $2.86B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is NTCT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, NetScout Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: NTCT) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $39.35 (-0.45% 1D, market cap $2.86B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, NTCT ranks #190 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does NTCT compare to CARG and FIVN in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), NTCT carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 30.0x, gross margin of 79.4%, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, CARG (CarGurus Inc. (Class A)) holds a A grade (90/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $2.89B) and FIVN (Five9 Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 70.9x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $2.80B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CARG leads on earnings multiple (18.6x) while CARG leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NTCT?
▼
Per NTCT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001078075), NetScout Systems Inc. generated $859.5M in revenue (+4.5% YoY), $95.5M in net income, and $285.4M in free cash flow against $2.32B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (79% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.24 (-0.27%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 33.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NTCT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NTCT SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.28 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 33.2% FCF Margin ($285.4M FCF) & 79.4% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B$40.69-6.4% Next Q
72
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B-$38.07+4.2% Next Q
69
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$39.67-0.8% Next Q
67
CurrentGrade C$39.35+1.1% Hist 90D α
64
Trajectory: B (72) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NTCT Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 64/100 (C) score, NTCT faces multiple-compression risk if 30.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 76.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($38.96) or 200D SMA ($36.36) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.41) toward Bear Floor ($31.52).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NTCT• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NTCT Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why NTCT Stock slipped -0.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
NetScout Systems Inc. (NTCT) slipped -0.45% to $39.35, trading at 70% of its 52-week range ($25.29 – $45.28). Solid 79% profit margin (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 30x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 70% of its 52-week range ($25.29 – $45.28) with RSI-14 at 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.5% around $39.35 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 79.4% gross margin and $285.4M annual free cash flow.
Live NTCT Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (NTCT Tape Review)
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NTCT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.77%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $38.76H $39.35L $37.79C $39.35VOL 523.7K
RES: $43.12SUP: $33.70SMA50: $38.96SMA200: $36.36
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
NTCT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
23.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +4.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NTCT today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NTCT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NTCT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NTCT)
Technology Rank #190 of 714
⚔️ CARG vs NTCT Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (NTCT vs. CARG, FIVN, LFTO, KD)
Industry: EDP Services (163 Tracked Issuers)Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NetScout Systems Inc. (NTCT) ranks #190 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #258 by equity capitalization ($2.86B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CARG leads on earnings valuation at 18.6x trailing P/E, while CARG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 92.8% gross margin. CARG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 90/100 (A) compared with NTCT at 64/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTCT
ACTIVE
NetScout Systems Inc. | C | 64/100 | 30.0x | 79.4% | 7.9% | -0.45% | $2.86B | Benchmark Subject |
| CARG CarGurus Inc. (Class A) | A | 90/100 | 18.6x | 92.8% | 85.0% | +3.77% | $2.89B | /carg-vs-ntct → |
| FIVN Five9 Inc. | C- | 59/100 | 70.9x | 55.1% | 4.1% | -0.58% | $2.80B | /fivn-vs-ntct → |
| LFTO Liftoff Mobile Inc. | D+ | 57/100 | — | — | — | -0.87% | $2.71B | /lfto-vs-ntct → |
| KD Kyndryl Holdings Inc. | D | 51/100 | — | 21.8% | — | -1.06% | $3.04B | /kd-vs-ntct → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0001078075In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), NetScout Systems Inc. (NTCT) reported GAAP revenue of $859.5M (+4.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $822.7M , and +3.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $95.5M, operating cash flow of $294.5M, and free cash flow of $285.4M (+34.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NTCT closed FY2025 with $2.32B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.28, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2026-03-31 | $859.5M | $95.5M | $294.5M | $285.4M | $2.32B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2025-03-31 | $822.7M | -$366.9M | $217.7M | $212.3M | $2.17B | $75.0M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2024-03-31 | $829.5M | -$147.7M | $58.8M | $58.8M | — | — |
3. NTCT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs NTCT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, NetScout Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: NTCT) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $39.35 (-0.45% 1D, market cap $2.86B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, NTCT ranks #190 in composite RQD confidence.
How does NTCT compare to CARG and FIVN in the Technology sector?
Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), NTCT carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 30.0x, gross margin of 79.4%, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, CARG (CarGurus Inc. (Class A)) holds a A grade (90/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $2.89B) and FIVN (Five9 Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 70.9x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $2.80B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CARG leads on earnings multiple (18.6x) while CARG leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NTCT?
Per NTCT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001078075), NetScout Systems Inc. generated $859.5M in revenue (+4.5% YoY), $95.5M in net income, and $285.4M in free cash flow against $2.32B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (79% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is NTCT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
NTCT last traded at $39.35 (-0.45% on volume of 384,526 shares), positioning the stock +1.00% above its 50-day simple moving average ($38.96) and +8.22% above its 200-day simple moving average ($36.36). Across its 52-week range of $25.29 to $45.28, NTCT sits at the 70.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($36.79 to $41.91).
NTCT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is NTCT stock moving today?
Why NTCT Stock slipped -0.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 79% profit margin (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 30x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.