MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 9d ago
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call PresentationWhy NP Stock dropped -2.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$28.81 -2.27% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.64
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $3.98B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.64 (-0.60%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 32.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NP SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (29% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 32.4% FCF Margin ($51.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (21% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$28.74+2.2% Next Q
50
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$29.36-3.1% Next Q
53
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$28.44+1.3% Next Q
55
CurrentGrade D+$28.81+0% Hist 90D α
58
Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NP Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, NP faces multiple-compression risk if 106.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Priced at 106x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($29.97) or 200D SMA ($27.46) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($28.81) toward Bear Floor ($22.47).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why NP Stock dropped -2.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) dropped -2.27% to $28.81, trading at 69% of its 52-week range ($14.78 – $35.15). Stretched risk/reward at 106x P/E (28% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 69% of its 52-week range ($14.78 – $35.15) with RSI-14 at 51.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.2% around $28.81 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $51.7M annual free cash flow.
Live NP Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 10d ago
Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight on Neptune Insurance Hldgs, Lowers Price Target to $35Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Huang maintains Neptune Insurance Hldgs (NYSE:NP) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $36 to $35.
CATALYSTYahoo • 10d ago
Neptune Insurance (NRP) Stock Price Slips As Q3 Earnings Flex MarginsNeptune Insurance came into this Q3 2026 report with a premium valuation and a reputation as a high growth, AI powered flood insurer. The share price has slipped 3.7% since the release, yet the headline number tells a di
CATALYSTBenzinga • 11d ago
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Maintains Market Perform on Neptune Insurance Hldgs, Raises Price Target to $33Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Tommy McJoynt maintains Neptune Insurance Hldgs (NYSE:NP) with a Market Perform and raises the price target from $32 to $33.
CATALYSTYahoo • 11d ago
Neptune Insurance: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term InvestorsAutomation is decoupling earnings growth from economic headwinds, letting Neptune expand without adding staff.
CATALYSTBenzinga • 11d ago
Mizuho Maintains Neutral on Neptune Insurance Hldgs, Raises Price Target to $33Mizuho analyst Yaron Kinar maintains Neptune Insurance Hldgs (NYSE:NP) with a Neutral and raises the price target from $31 to $33.
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 11d ago
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptMARKET WIREYahoo • 11d ago
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Call SummaryMoby summary of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.'s Q3 2026 earnings call
CATALYSTChartMill • 12d ago
Neptune Insurance (NYSE:NP) Posts Record Q3 2026 Revenue and Beats EstimatesNeptune Insurance Q3 2026 results topped estimates with record revenue up 34% to $59.6M, strong profitability, and 31% written premium growth.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 12d ago
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) Q3 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street EstimatesThe headline numbers for Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) give insight into how the company performed in the quarter ended September 2026, but it may be worthwhile to compare some of its key metrics to Wall Street es
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NP)
- ✓Walkthrough of NP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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NP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.64%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $29.07H $29.34L $28.65C $28.81VOL 571.3K
RES: $35.69SUP: $25.62SMA50: $29.97SMA200: $27.46
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
NP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +33.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NP today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NP)
Financials Rank #601 of 1096
⚔️ CRVL vs NP Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NP vs. CRVL, ARX, BWIN, LIFE)
Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) ranks #601 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #314 by equity capitalization ($3.98B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CRVL leads on earnings valuation at 37.6x trailing P/E, while LIFE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 40.6% ROIC and — gross margin. CRVL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with NP at 58/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NP
ACTIVE
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 58/100 | 106.4x | — | 28.2% | -2.27% | $3.98B | Benchmark Subject |
| CRVL CorVel Corp. | C | 64/100 | 37.6x | — | 29.4% | +0.75% | $4.15B | /crvl-vs-np → |
| ARX Accelerant Holdings (Class A) | D+ | 53/100 | — | — | — | +0.05% | $4.30B | /arx-vs-np → |
| BWIN The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | — | 3.6% | -0.38% | $4.44B | /bwin-vs-np → |
| LIFE Ethos Technologies Inc. (Class A) | C- | 61/100 | 39.8x | — | 40.6% | +1.85% | $2.83B | /life-vs-np → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002067129In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) reported GAAP revenue of $159.6M (+33.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $119.3M , and +88.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $37.4M, operating cash flow of $51.7M, and free cash flow of $51.7M (+3.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NP closed FY2025 with $65.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $159.6M | $37.4M | $51.7M | $51.7M | $65.3M | $0 |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $119.3M | $34.6M | $49.9M | $49.9M | $48.2M | $125.1M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $84.9M | $17.9M | $18.6M | $18.6M | — | — |
3. NP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs NP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: NP) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $28.81 (-2.27% 1D, market cap $3.98B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NP ranks #601 in composite RQD confidence.
How does NP compare to CRVL and ARX in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), NP carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 106.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 28.2%. By comparison, CRVL (CorVel Corp.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 37.6x, ROIC 29.4%, cap $4.15B) and ARX (Accelerant Holdings (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $4.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRVL leads on earnings multiple (37.6x) while LIFE leads on capital efficiency (40.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NP?
Per NP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002067129), Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $159.6M in revenue (+33.7% YoY), $37.4M in net income, and $51.7M in free cash flow against $65.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is NP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
NP last traded at $28.81 (-2.27% on volume of 772,938 shares), positioning the stock -3.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.97) and +4.92% above its 200-day simple moving average ($27.46). Across its 52-week range of $14.78 to $35.15, NP sits at the 68.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($26.45 to $31.17).
NP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is NP stock moving today?
Why NP Stock dropped -2.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 106x P/E (28% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.