Stock Ratings / Financials / NP / earnings

CRVL (64) ARX (53) BWIN (46) LIFE (61) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.2% Move

$28.81 -2.27% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.64

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.98B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.64 (-0.60%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 32.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NP SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 32.4% FCF Margin ($51.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$28.74+2.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$29.36-3.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$28.44+1.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$28.81+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, NP faces multiple-compression risk if 106.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 106x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($29.97) or 200D SMA ($27.46) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($28.81) toward Bear Floor ($22.47).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8.2% Swing Band

±$2.36 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

NP Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 58/100

Trailing EPS: $0.27 • YoY Revenue Growth: 33.7%

Model Bullish Setup (58/100)Model Risk Weight (42/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$159.6M	$37.4M	$51.7M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$119.3M	$34.6M	$49.9M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$84.9M	$17.9M	$18.6M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NP)

✓Walkthrough of NP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

NP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.64%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $29.07H $29.34L $28.65C $28.81VOL 571.3K

RES: $35.69SUP: $25.62SMA50: $29.97SMA200: $27.46

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NP Butterfly Map → + Track NP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +33.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NP)

Financials Rank #601 of 1096 ⚔️ CRVL vs NP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NP vs. CRVL, ARX, BWIN, LIFE)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) ranks #601 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #314 by equity capitalization ($3.98B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CRVL leads on earnings valuation at 37.6x trailing P/E, while LIFE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 40.6% ROIC and — gross margin. CRVL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with NP at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NP ACTIVE Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D+	58/100	106.4x	—	28.2%	-2.27%	$3.98B	Benchmark Subject
CRVL CorVel Corp.	C	64/100	37.6x	—	29.4%	+0.75%	$4.15B	/crvl-vs-np →
ARX Accelerant Holdings (Class A)	D+	53/100	—	—	—	+0.05%	$4.30B	/arx-vs-np →
BWIN The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	3.6%	-0.38%	$4.44B	/bwin-vs-np →
LIFE Ethos Technologies Inc. (Class A)	C-	61/100	39.8x	—	40.6%	+1.85%	$2.83B	/life-vs-np →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002067129

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) reported GAAP revenue of $159.6M (+33.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $119.3M , and +88.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $37.4M, operating cash flow of $51.7M, and free cash flow of $51.7M (+3.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NP closed FY2025 with $65.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$159.6M	$37.4M	$51.7M	$51.7M	$65.3M	$0
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$119.3M	$34.6M	$49.9M	$49.9M	$48.2M	$125.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$84.9M	$17.9M	$18.6M	$18.6M	—	—

3. NP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: NP) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $28.81 (-2.27% 1D, market cap $3.98B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NP ranks #601 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NP compare to CRVL and ARX in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), NP carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 106.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 28.2%. By comparison, CRVL (CorVel Corp.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 37.6x, ROIC 29.4%, cap $4.15B) and ARX (Accelerant Holdings (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $4.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRVL leads on earnings multiple (37.6x) while LIFE leads on capital efficiency (40.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NP?

Per NP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002067129), Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $159.6M in revenue (+33.7% YoY), $37.4M in net income, and $51.7M in free cash flow against $65.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NP last traded at $28.81 (-2.27% on volume of 772,938 shares), positioning the stock -3.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.97) and +4.92% above its 200-day simple moving average ($27.46). Across its 52-week range of $14.78 to $35.15, NP sits at the 68.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($26.45 to $31.17).

NP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is NP's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is NP stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±8.2% event move for NP, spanning a range between $26.45 and $31.17.

Direct Sub-Reports: NP RQD Cockpit NP 12M Forecast NP Earnings & Move NP Dividends & DRIP NP Insiders & 13F NP Whale Options NP Profit Sankey NP News & Why