Stock Ratings / Financials / NP / dividends

CRVL (64) ARX (53) BWIN (46) LIFE (61) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$28.81 -2.27% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.64

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.98B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.64 (-0.60%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 32.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NP SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 32.4% FCF Margin ($51.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$28.74+2.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$29.36-3.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$28.44+1.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$28.81+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, NP faces multiple-compression risk if 106.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 106x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($29.97) or 200D SMA ($27.46) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($28.81) toward Bear Floor ($22.47).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

0.6% Total Yield

0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 0.6% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

0% (100% Reinvested)

Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (15.1% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $40,809

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $245/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$11.5K

Yr 1

$13.2K

Yr 2

$15.2K

Yr 3

$17.6K

Yr 4

$20.2K

Yr 5

$23.3K

Yr 6

$26.8K

Yr 7

$30.8K

Yr 8

$35.5K

Yr 9

$40.8K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NP)

✓Walkthrough of NP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

NP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.64%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $29.07H $29.34L $28.65C $28.81VOL 571.3K

RES: $35.69SUP: $25.62SMA50: $29.97SMA200: $27.46

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NP Butterfly Map → + Track NP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +33.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NP)

Financials Rank #601 of 1096 ⚔️ CRVL vs NP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NP vs. CRVL, ARX, BWIN, LIFE)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) ranks #601 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #314 by equity capitalization ($3.98B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CRVL leads on earnings valuation at 37.6x trailing P/E, while LIFE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 40.6% ROIC and — gross margin. CRVL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with NP at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NP ACTIVE Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D+	58/100	106.4x	—	28.2%	-2.27%	$3.98B	Benchmark Subject
CRVL CorVel Corp.	C	64/100	37.6x	—	29.4%	+0.75%	$4.15B	/crvl-vs-np →
ARX Accelerant Holdings (Class A)	D+	53/100	—	—	—	+0.05%	$4.30B	/arx-vs-np →
BWIN The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	3.6%	-0.38%	$4.44B	/bwin-vs-np →
LIFE Ethos Technologies Inc. (Class A)	C-	61/100	39.8x	—	40.6%	+1.85%	$2.83B	/life-vs-np →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002067129

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) reported GAAP revenue of $159.6M (+33.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $119.3M , and +88.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $37.4M, operating cash flow of $51.7M, and free cash flow of $51.7M (+3.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NP closed FY2025 with $65.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$159.6M	$37.4M	$51.7M	$51.7M	$65.3M	$0
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$119.3M	$34.6M	$49.9M	$49.9M	$48.2M	$125.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$84.9M	$17.9M	$18.6M	$18.6M	—	—

3. NP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: NP) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $28.81 (-2.27% 1D, market cap $3.98B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NP ranks #601 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NP compare to CRVL and ARX in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), NP carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 106.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 28.2%. By comparison, CRVL (CorVel Corp.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 37.6x, ROIC 29.4%, cap $4.15B) and ARX (Accelerant Holdings (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $4.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRVL leads on earnings multiple (37.6x) while LIFE leads on capital efficiency (40.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NP?

Per NP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002067129), Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $159.6M in revenue (+33.7% YoY), $37.4M in net income, and $51.7M in free cash flow against $65.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NP last traded at $28.81 (-2.27% on volume of 772,938 shares), positioning the stock -3.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.97) and +4.92% above its 200-day simple moving average ($27.46). Across its 52-week range of $14.78 to $35.15, NP sits at the 68.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($26.45 to $31.17).

NP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does NP pay a dividend and is it safe?

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 0.6% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

Direct Sub-Reports: NP RQD Cockpit NP 12M Forecast NP Earnings & Move NP Dividends & DRIP NP Insiders & 13F NP Whale Options NP Profit Sankey NP News & Why