MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why NOG Stock slipped -1.00% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$27.81 -1.00% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.71
Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $2.96B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.71 (-0.37%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 60.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NOG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NOG SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (24% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 60.8% FCF Margin ($1.51B FCF) & 80.9% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (24% of score)
Altman Z-Score 1.28 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$24.76+9.7% Next Q
41
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$27.16+4.1% Next Q
44
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$28.26-1.6% Next Q
46
CurrentGrade D$27.81-5.4% Hist 90D α
49
Trajectory: D (41) → D (49)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NOG Turnaround Squeeze
While NOG currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($25.75) and Max Pain ($29.20) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $32.73.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NOG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NOG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why NOG Stock slipped -1.00% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) slipped -1.00% to $27.81, trading at 76% of its 52-week range ($17.18 – $31.17). Stretched risk/reward at 76x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 76% of its 52-week range ($17.18 – $31.17) with RSI-14 at 66.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7% around $27.81 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 80.9% gross margin and $1.5B annual free cash flow.
Live NOG Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NOG)
- ✓Walkthrough of NOG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
NOG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.39%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $28.22H $28.40L $27.81C $27.81VOL 1.24M
RES: $28.85SUP: $24.46SMA50: $25.75SMA200: $24.55
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
NOG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +11.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NOG today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NOG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NOG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NOG)
Energy Rank #153 of 211
⚔️ TALO vs NOG Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (NOG vs. TALO, GPOR, SDRL, CPK)
Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) ranks #153 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #107 by equity capitalization ($2.96B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GPOR leads on earnings valuation at 6.8x trailing P/E, while GPOR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.1% ROIC and 74.8% gross margin. GPOR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with NOG at 49/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOG
ACTIVE
Northern Oil and Gas Inc. | D | 49/100 | 76.4x | 80.9% | 9.2% | -1.00% | $2.96B | Benchmark Subject |
| TALO Talos Energy Inc. | C- | 59/100 | — | — | -14.6% | -2.20% | $2.97B | /talo-vs-nog → |
| GPOR Gulfport Energy Corporation | B | 74/100 | 6.8x | 74.8% | 18.1% | -0.42% | $2.92B | /gpor-vs-nog → |
| SDRL Seadrill Limited | D- | 42/100 | — | — | 1.2% | -1.30% | $3.24B | /sdrl-vs-nog → |
| CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | D+ | 58/100 | 23.3x | — | 6.9% | +1.39% | $3.27B | /cpk-vs-nog → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001104485In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) reported GAAP revenue of $2.48B (+11.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.23B , and +14.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $38.8M, operating cash flow of $1.51B, and free cash flow of $1.51B (+6.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, NOG closed FY2025 with $5.41B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.28, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $2.48B | $38.8M | $1.51B | $1.51B | $5.41B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $2.23B | $520.3M | $1.41B | $1.41B | $5.60B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $2.17B | $923.0M | $1.18B | $1.18B | — | — |
3. NOG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs NOG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NYSE: NOG) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $27.81 (-1.00% 1D, market cap $2.96B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, NOG ranks #153 in composite RQD confidence.
How does NOG compare to TALO and GPOR in the Energy sector?
Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), NOG carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 76.4x, gross margin of 80.9%, and ROIC of 9.2%. By comparison, TALO (Talos Energy Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.6%, cap $2.97B) and GPOR (Gulfport Energy Corporation) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 6.8x, ROIC 18.1%, cap $2.92B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GPOR leads on earnings multiple (6.8x) while GPOR leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NOG?
Per NOG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001104485), Northern Oil and Gas Inc. generated $2.48B in revenue (+11.2% YoY), $38.8M in net income, and $1.51B in free cash flow against $5.41B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is NOG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
NOG last traded at $27.81 (-1.00% on volume of 953,683 shares), positioning the stock +8.00% above its 50-day simple moving average ($25.75) and +13.28% above its 200-day simple moving average ($24.55). Across its 52-week range of $17.18 to $31.17, NOG sits at the 76.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($25.86 to $29.76).
NOG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is NOG stock moving today?
Why NOG Stock slipped -1.00% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 76x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.