Stock Ratings / Financials / NKSH / forecast

RMBI (67) OVBC (69) EFSI (63) VABK (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$40.95 +0.10% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.88

National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $260.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.88 (-0.17%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NKSH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NKSH SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 71% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 37 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$42.56+2.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$43.58-7.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$40.48+1.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$40.95+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (74) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NKSH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, NKSH faces multiple-compression risk if 16.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($42.22) or 200D SMA ($38.37) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($42.42) toward Bear Floor ($33.09).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NKSH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NKSH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your NKSH Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $40.95: 244.2 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $33.09

$8,081

$-1,919 (-19.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $42.42

$10,359

+$359 (+3.6%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $50.06

$12,225

+$2,225 (+22.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$44	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$47	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$38	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (NKSH Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

NKSH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.39%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $40.98H $41.25L $40.17C $40.95VOL 35.9K

RES: $46.28SUP: $39.49SMA50: $42.22SMA200: $38.37

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NKSH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NKSH Butterfly Map → + Track NKSH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

9.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NKSH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NKSH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NKSH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NKSH)

Financials Rank #297 of 1096 ⚔️ RMBI vs NKSH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NKSH vs. RMBI, OVBC, EFSI, VABK)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) ranks #297 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #844 by equity capitalization ($260.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VABK leads on earnings valuation at 14.4x trailing P/E, while VABK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.5% ROIC and — gross margin. VABK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with NKSH at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NKSH ACTIVE National Bankshares Inc.	C+	66/100	16.5x	—	8.6%	+0.10%	$260.9M	Benchmark Subject
RMBI Richmond Mutual Bancorporation Inc.	C+	67/100	23.0x	—	7.9%	+0.44%	$265.8M	/rmbi-vs-nksh →
OVBC Ohio Valley Banc Corp.	C+	69/100	17.3x	—	9.2%	+2.23%	$269.4M	/ovbc-vs-nksh →
EFSI Eagle Financial Services Inc	C	63/100	30.3x	—	4.3%	+1.23%	$249.3M	/efsi-vs-nksh →
VABK Virginia National Bankshares Corporation	B-	70/100	14.4x	—	10.5%	+5.14%	$277.7M	/vabk-vs-nksh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000796534

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $15.8M, operating cash flow of $17.9M, and free cash flow of $17.9M (+89.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, NKSH closed FY2025 with $1.82B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$15.8M	$17.9M	$17.9M	$1.82B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$7.6M	$9.4M	$9.4M	$1.81B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$15.7M	$15.5M	$15.5M	—	—

3. NKSH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NKSH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, National Bankshares Inc. (NASDAQ: NKSH) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $40.95 (+0.10% 1D, market cap $260.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NKSH ranks #297 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NKSH compare to RMBI and OVBC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), NKSH carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.6%. By comparison, RMBI (Richmond Mutual Bancorporation Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 23.0x, ROIC 7.9%, cap $265.8M) and OVBC (Ohio Valley Banc Corp.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 17.3x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $269.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VABK leads on earnings multiple (14.4x) while VABK leads on capital efficiency (10.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NKSH?

Per NKSH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000796534), National Bankshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $15.8M in net income, and $17.9M in free cash flow against $1.82B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NKSH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NKSH last traded at $40.95 (+0.10% on volume of 24,907 shares), positioning the stock -3.01% below its 50-day simple moving average ($42.22) and +6.72% above its 200-day simple moving average ($38.37). Across its 52-week range of $28.35 to $45.99, NKSH sits at the 71.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($38.29 to $43.61).

NKSH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is NKSH's 12-month stock price target?

National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $42.42 (+3.6% from $40.95), with a bull-case target of $50.06 and a bear-case floor of $33.09.