Stock Ratings / Materials / NGVT / earnings

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Ingevity Corporation (NGVT) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6% Move

$75.37 +1.62% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $75.45

Ingevity Corporation (NGVT) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.59B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $75.45 (+0.10%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 28.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NGVT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NGVT SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 28.4% FCF Margin ($331.2M FCF) & 39.5% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 88% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 62 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$69.76+0.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$69.82-0.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$69.64+8.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$75.37+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NGVT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, NGVT faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 37.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($70.42) or 200D SMA ($71.26) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($78.76) toward Bear Floor ($61.43).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NGVT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NGVT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6% Swing Band

±$4.52 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

NGVT Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 68/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: -2.7%

Model Bullish Setup (68/100)Model Risk Weight (32/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$1.17B	-$167.1M	$331.2M	39.5%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$1.20B	-$430.3M	$128.6M	38.7%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$1.22B	-$5.4M	$205.1M	39.5%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating NGVT & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on NGVT
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NGVT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.08%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $75.37H $75.38L $73.19C $75.37VOL 279.1K

RES: $78.84SUP: $65.25SMA50: $70.42SMA200: $71.26

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NGVT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NGVT Butterfly Map → + Track NGVT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-6.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NGVT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NGVT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NGVT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NGVT)

Materials Rank #21 of 270 ⚔️ IOSP vs NGVT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (NGVT vs. IOSP, ROG, KWR, WDFC)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ingevity Corporation (NGVT) ranks #21 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #101 by equity capitalization ($2.59B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WDFC leads on earnings valuation at 32.3x trailing P/E, while NGVT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 39.5% gross margin. WDFC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with NGVT at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NGVT ACTIVE Ingevity Corporation	C+	68/100	—	39.5%	85.0%	+1.62%	$2.59B	Benchmark Subject
IOSP Innospec Inc.	B-	70/100	—	27.7%	9.9%	+0.71%	$2.50B	/iosp-vs-ngvt →
ROG Rogers Corporation	D+	52/100	—	31.7%	-3.6%	-0.33%	$2.50B	/rog-vs-ngvt →
KWR Quaker Houghton	D+	56/100	—	36.0%	2.1%	+0.61%	$2.72B	/kwr-vs-ngvt →
WDFC WD-40 Company	B	75/100	32.3x	55.1%	27.2%	+2.49%	$2.94B	/wdfc-vs-ngvt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001653477

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ingevity Corporation (NGVT) reported GAAP revenue of $1.17B (-2.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.20B , and -3.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$167.1M, operating cash flow of $331.2M, and free cash flow of $331.2M (+157.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NGVT closed FY2025 with $1.65B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.93, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.17B	-$167.1M	$331.2M	$331.2M	$1.65B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.20B	-$430.3M	$128.6M	$128.6M	$2.02B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.22B	-$5.4M	$205.1M	$205.1M	—	—

3. NGVT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NGVT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Ingevity Corporation (NYSE: NGVT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $75.37 (+1.62% 1D, market cap $2.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, NGVT ranks #21 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NGVT compare to IOSP and ROG in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), NGVT carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 39.5%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, IOSP (Innospec Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 9.9%, cap $2.50B) and ROG (Rogers Corporation) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.6%, cap $2.50B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WDFC leads on earnings multiple (32.3x) while NGVT leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NGVT?

Per NGVT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001653477), Ingevity Corporation generated $1.17B in revenue (-2.7% YoY), -$167.1M in net income, and $331.2M in free cash flow against $1.65B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (40% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NGVT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NGVT last traded at $75.37 (+1.62% on volume of 342,479 shares), positioning the stock +7.03% above its 50-day simple moving average ($70.42) and +5.77% above its 200-day simple moving average ($71.26). Across its 52-week range of $45.85 to $79.29, NGVT sits at the 88.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.0% ($70.85 to $79.89).

NGVT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is NGVT's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Ingevity Corporation (NGVT)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is NGVT stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6% event move for NGVT, spanning a range between $70.85 and $79.89.

Direct Sub-Reports: NGVT RQD Cockpit NGVT 12M Forecast NGVT Earnings & Move NGVT Dividends & DRIP NGVT Insiders & 13F NGVT Whale Options NGVT Profit Sankey NGVT News & Why