MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why NCNO Stock slipped -0.97% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$22.45 -0.97% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.37
nCino Inc. (NCNO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $2.37B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.37 (-0.36%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 13.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NCNO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NCNO SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (26% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 63% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 61.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (24% of score)
Altman Z-Score 2.51 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0.6% operating margin leave 11 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$19.73+4% Next Q
50
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$20.51+13% Next Q
53
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$23.17-3.1% Next Q
55
CurrentGrade D+$22.45+0% Hist 90D α
58
Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NCNO Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, NCNO faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 58.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($21.06) or 200D SMA ($18.28) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($22.45) toward Bear Floor ($17.51).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NCNO• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NCNO Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why NCNO Stock slipped -0.97% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
nCino Inc. (NCNO) slipped -0.97% to $22.45, trading at 63% of its 52-week range ($13.8 – $27.5). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 63% of its 52-week range ($13.8 – $27.5) with RSI-14 at 61.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.9% around $22.45 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 60.6% gross margin and $82.6M annual free cash flow.
Live NCNO Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 6h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NCNO)
- ✓Walkthrough of NCNO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NCNO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.43%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-10-30O $22.45H $22.70L $22.24C $22.45VOL 1.44M
RES: $23.42SUP: $18.84SMA50: $21.06SMA200: $18.28
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
NCNO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +10.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NCNO today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NCNO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NCNO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NCNO)
Technology Rank #278 of 714
⚔️ BLKB vs NCNO Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (NCNO vs. BLKB, VERX, KC, ASAN)
Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, nCino Inc. (NCNO) ranks #278 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #277 by equity capitalization ($2.37B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BLKB leads on earnings valuation at 20.6x trailing P/E, while BLKB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.3% ROIC and 58.8% gross margin. NCNO currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 58/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCNO
ACTIVE
nCino Inc. | D+ | 58/100 | — | 60.6% | 0.2% | -0.97% | $2.37B | Benchmark Subject |
| BLKB Blackbaud Inc. | D | 51/100 | 20.6x | 58.8% | 13.3% | +0.38% | $2.37B | /blkb-vs-ncno → |
| VERX Vertex Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 53/100 | — | 64.3% | 0.7% | +0.34% | $2.41B | /verx-vs-ncno → |
| KC Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited | D | 45/100 | — | 15.7% | -9.7% | -5.56% | $2.44B | /kc-vs-ncno → |
| ASAN Asana Inc. (Class A) | D- | 41/100 | — | 89.0% | -35.0% | -4.17% | $2.58B | /asan-vs-ncno → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0001902733In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), nCino Inc. (NCNO) reported GAAP revenue of $594.8M (+10.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $540.7M , and +24.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $9.7M, operating cash flow of $90.1M, and free cash flow of $82.6M (+54.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, NCNO closed FY2025 with $1.65B in total assets against $213.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.51, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2026-01-31 | $594.8M | $9.7M | $90.1M | $82.6M | $1.65B | $213.5M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2025-01-31 | $540.7M | -$33.0M | $55.2M | $53.4M | $1.61B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2024-01-31 | $476.5M | -$43.5M | $57.3M | $57.3M | — | — |
3. NCNO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs NCNO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, nCino Inc. (NASDAQ: NCNO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $22.45 (-0.97% 1D, market cap $2.37B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, NCNO ranks #278 in composite RQD confidence.
How does NCNO compare to BLKB and VERX in the Technology sector?
Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), NCNO carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 60.6%, and ROIC of 0.2%. By comparison, BLKB (Blackbaud Inc.) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 20.6x, ROIC 13.3%, cap $2.37B) and VERX (Vertex Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.7%, cap $2.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BLKB leads on earnings multiple (20.6x) while BLKB leads on capital efficiency (13.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCNO?
Per NCNO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001902733), nCino Inc. generated $594.8M in revenue (+10.0% YoY), $9.7M in net income, and $82.6M in free cash flow against $1.65B in total assets and $213.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is NCNO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
NCNO last traded at $22.45 (-0.97% on volume of 1,821,251 shares), positioning the stock +6.60% above its 50-day simple moving average ($21.06) and +22.81% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.28). Across its 52-week range of $13.80 to $27.50, NCNO sits at the 63.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.9% ($20.45 to $24.45).
NCNO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is NCNO stock moving today?
Why NCNO Stock slipped -0.97% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.