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Montauk Renewables Inc. (MNTK) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$2.37 +5.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.39

Montauk Renewables Inc. (MNTK) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $337.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.39 (+0.77%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MNTK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MNTK SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 59% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0.5% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$2.53-15.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$2.14-0.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$2.13+11.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$2.37-6.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → D- (43)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MNTK Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MNTK currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.32) and Max Pain ($2.49) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.44.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MNTK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MNTK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

46.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.78>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE59% OF RANGE

L: $1$2.37H: $3

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 4 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on MNTK

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (20)

0.2% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 1.78 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (52)

19/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MNTK

✓Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MNTK)

✓Walkthrough of MNTK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MNTK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +62.33%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $2.36H $2.40L $2.15C $2.37VOL 511.1K

RES: $3.58SUP: $2.08SMA50: $2.32SMA200: $1.74

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MNTK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MNTK Butterfly Map → + Track MNTK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-12.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MNTK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MNTK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MNTK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MNTK)

Energy Rank #178 of 211 ⚔️ CLNE vs MNTK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (MNTK vs. CLNE, OPAL, SMC, TGS)

Industry: Natural Gas Distribution (25 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Montauk Renewables Inc. (MNTK) ranks #178 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #163 by equity capitalization ($337.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MNTK leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while OPAL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 41.1% ROIC and — gross margin. SMC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with MNTK at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MNTK ACTIVE Montauk Renewables Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	0.2%	+5.33%	$337.3M	Benchmark Subject
CLNE Clean Energy Fuels Corp.	D	51/100	—	—	-20.0%	+4.20%	$328.5M	/clne-vs-mntk →
OPAL OPAL Fuels Inc. (Class A)	D	49/100	—	—	41.1%	+5.84%	$284.7M	/opal-vs-mntk →
SMC Summit Midstream Corporation	D+	57/100	—	73.5%	0.5%	+0.45%	$637.5M	/smc-vs-mntk →
TGS Transportadora de Gas del Sur SA TGS	D+	52/100	—	—	—	-1.11%	$3.77B	/tgs-vs-mntk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001826600

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Montauk Renewables Inc. (MNTK) reported GAAP revenue of $176.4M (+0.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $175.7M , and +0.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.7M, operating cash flow of $30.3M, and free cash flow of -$86.2M (-365.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, MNTK closed FY2025 with $435.5M in total assets against $126.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.78, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$176.4M	$1.7M	$30.3M	-$86.2M	$435.5M	$126.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$175.7M	$9.7M	$43.8M	-$18.5M	$349.0M	$43.8M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$174.9M	$14.9M	$41.1M	$41.1M	—	—

3. MNTK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MNTK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Montauk Renewables Inc. (NASDAQ: MNTK) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $2.37 (+5.33% 1D, market cap $337.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, MNTK ranks #178 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MNTK compare to CLNE and OPAL in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Natural Gas Distribution), MNTK carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 0.2%. By comparison, CLNE (Clean Energy Fuels Corp.) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.0%, cap $328.5M) and OPAL (OPAL Fuels Inc. (Class A)) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 41.1%, cap $284.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MNTK leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OPAL leads on capital efficiency (41.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MNTK?

Per MNTK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001826600), Montauk Renewables Inc. generated $176.4M in revenue (+0.4% YoY), $1.7M in net income, and -$86.2M in free cash flow against $435.5M in total assets and $126.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MNTK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MNTK last traded at $2.37 (+5.33% on volume of 590,218 shares), positioning the stock +2.16% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.32) and +36.21% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.74). Across its 52-week range of $1.07 to $3.28, MNTK sits at the 58.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.07 to $2.67).

MNTK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell MNTK stock right now?

Montauk Renewables Inc. (MNTK) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 43/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is MNTK's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MNTK's 12-month base price target is $2.21 (range $1.72 to $3.44), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: MNTK RQD Cockpit MNTK 12M Forecast MNTK Earnings & Move MNTK Dividends & DRIP MNTK Insiders & 13F MNTK Whale Options MNTK Profit Sankey MNTK News & Why