MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why MFIN Stock advanced +1.39% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$11.68 +1.39% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.69
Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $268.2M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.69 (+0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 3.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MFIN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MFIN SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.2% FCF Margin ($126.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C+$11.88-5.8% Next Q
65
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$11.19+2.1% Next Q
62
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$11.42+2.3% Next Q
60
CurrentGrade D+$11.68-0.2% Hist 90D α
57
Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MFIN Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, MFIN faces multiple-compression risk if 6.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.73) or 200D SMA ($10.27) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.63) toward Bear Floor ($9.07).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MFIN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MFIN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why MFIN Stock advanced +1.39% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) advanced +1.39% to $11.68, trading at 87% of its 52-week range ($7.85 – $12.26). Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (11% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 87% of its 52-week range ($7.85 – $12.26) with RSI-14 at 27.8 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7% around $11.68 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $126.3M annual free cash flow.
Live MFIN Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MFIN)
- ✓Walkthrough of MFIN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
MFIN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +27.51%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $11.69H $11.69L $10.07C $11.68VOL 64.8K
RES: $13.46SUP: $11.20SMA50: $11.73SMA200: $10.27
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
MFIN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-10.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MFIN today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MFIN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MFIN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MFIN)
Financials Rank #651 of 1096
⚔️ XYF vs MFIN Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MFIN vs. XYF, USDE, SVIA, RWAY)
Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) ranks #651 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #837 by equity capitalization ($268.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MFIN leads on earnings valuation at 6.2x trailing P/E, while XYF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.8% ROIC and — gross margin. XYF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with MFIN at 57/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFIN
ACTIVE
Medallion Financial Corp. | D+ | 57/100 | 6.2x | — | 10.5% | +1.39% | $268.2M | Benchmark Subject |
| XYF X Financial each representing six (Class A) | C+ | 67/100 | — | — | 18.8% | +0.83% | $267.9M | /xyf-vs-mfin → |
| USDE StablecoinX Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 57/100 | — | — | — | +4.44% | $268.6M | /usde-vs-mfin → |
| SVIA Silvia Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | — | — | -4.49% | $267.3M | /svia-vs-mfin → |
| RWAY Runway Growth Finance Corp. | C | 64/100 | 8.1x | — | 7.0% | +1.70% | $276.6M | /rway-vs-mfin → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001000209In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $43.0M, operating cash flow of $126.3M, and free cash flow of $126.3M (+16.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MFIN closed FY2025 with $2.96B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $43.0M | $126.3M | $126.3M | $2.96B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $35.9M | $108.7M | $108.7M | $2.87B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $55.1M | $113.8M | $113.8M | — | — |
3. MFIN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs MFIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Medallion Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: MFIN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $11.68 (+1.39% 1D, market cap $268.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MFIN ranks #651 in composite RQD confidence.
How does MFIN compare to XYF and USDE in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), MFIN carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.5%. By comparison, XYF (X Financial each representing six (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 18.8%, cap $267.9M) and USDE (StablecoinX Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $268.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFIN leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while XYF leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MFIN?
Per MFIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001000209), Medallion Financial Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $43.0M in net income, and $126.3M in free cash flow against $2.96B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is MFIN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
MFIN last traded at $11.68 (+1.39% on volume of 45,998 shares), positioning the stock -0.43% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.73) and +13.73% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.27). Across its 52-week range of $7.85 to $12.26, MFIN sits at the 86.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 27.8 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($10.86 to $12.50).
MFIN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is MFIN stock moving today?
Why MFIN Stock advanced +1.39% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (11% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.