Stock Ratings / Financials / MFIN / earnings

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Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7% Move

Q: When is MFIN's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

Q: How much is MFIN stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7% event move for MFIN, spanning a range between $10.86 and $12.5.

$11.68 +1.39% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.69

Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $268.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MFIN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MFIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Medallion Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: MFIN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $11.68 (+1.39% 1D, market cap $268.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MFIN ranks #651 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MFIN compare to XYF and USDE in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), MFIN carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.5%. By comparison, XYF (X Financial each representing six (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 18.8%, cap $267.9M) and USDE (StablecoinX Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $268.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFIN leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while XYF leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MFIN?

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Per MFIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001000209), Medallion Financial Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $43.0M in net income, and $126.3M in free cash flow against $2.96B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.69 (+0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 3.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MFIN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MFIN SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.2% FCF Margin ($126.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$11.88-5.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$11.19+2.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$11.42+2.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$11.68-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MFIN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, MFIN faces multiple-compression risk if 6.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.73) or 200D SMA ($10.27) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.63) toward Bear Floor ($9.07).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MFIN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MFIN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7% Swing Band

±$0.82 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MFIN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 57/100

Trailing EPS: $1.87 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (57/100)Model Risk Weight (43/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$43.0M	$126.3M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$35.9M	$108.7M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$55.1M	$113.8M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MFIN)

✓Walkthrough of MFIN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MFIN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +27.51%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $11.69H $11.69L $10.07C $11.68VOL 64.8K

RES: $13.46SUP: $11.20SMA50: $11.73SMA200: $10.27

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MFIN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MFIN Butterfly Map → + Track MFIN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-10.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MFIN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MFIN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MFIN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MFIN)

Financials Rank #651 of 1096 ⚔️ XYF vs MFIN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MFIN vs. XYF, USDE, SVIA, RWAY)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) ranks #651 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #837 by equity capitalization ($268.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MFIN leads on earnings valuation at 6.2x trailing P/E, while XYF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.8% ROIC and — gross margin. XYF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with MFIN at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MFIN ACTIVE Medallion Financial Corp.	D+	57/100	6.2x	—	10.5%	+1.39%	$268.2M	Benchmark Subject
XYF X Financial each representing six (Class A)	C+	67/100	—	—	18.8%	+0.83%	$267.9M	/xyf-vs-mfin →
USDE StablecoinX Inc. (Class A)	D+	57/100	—	—	—	+4.44%	$268.6M	/usde-vs-mfin →
SVIA Silvia Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	—	-4.49%	$267.3M	/svia-vs-mfin →
RWAY Runway Growth Finance Corp.	C	64/100	8.1x	—	7.0%	+1.70%	$276.6M	/rway-vs-mfin →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001000209

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $43.0M, operating cash flow of $126.3M, and free cash flow of $126.3M (+16.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MFIN closed FY2025 with $2.96B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$43.0M	$126.3M	$126.3M	$2.96B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$35.9M	$108.7M	$108.7M	$2.87B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$55.1M	$113.8M	$113.8M	—	—

3. MFIN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MFIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MFIN compare to XYF and USDE in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MFIN?

Where is MFIN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MFIN last traded at $11.68 (+1.39% on volume of 45,998 shares), positioning the stock -0.43% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.73) and +13.73% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.27). Across its 52-week range of $7.85 to $12.26, MFIN sits at the 86.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 27.8 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($10.86 to $12.50).

MFIN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MFIN's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is MFIN stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7% event move for MFIN, spanning a range between $10.86 and $12.5.

Direct Sub-Reports: MFIN RQD Cockpit MFIN 12M Forecast MFIN Earnings & Move MFIN Dividends & DRIP MFIN Insiders & 13F MFIN Whale Options MFIN Profit Sankey MFIN News & Why