Stock Ratings / Health Care / INVA / forecast

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Innoviva Inc. (INVA) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$21.31 +0.90% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.40

Innoviva Inc. (INVA) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (75% profit margin, 15% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $1.54B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.40 (+0.40%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 47.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk A-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for INVA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY INVA SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+20/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 47% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 53.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 47.6% FCF Margin ($195.8M FCF) & 74.8% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$21.21-2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$20.78-0.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$20.66+3.1% Next Q

Current

Grade B$21.31+7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (67) → B (75)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the INVA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, INVA faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 72.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.99) or 200D SMA ($21.89) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($22.94) toward Bear Floor ($17.47).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $INVA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “INVA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 75%NO 25%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your INVA Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $21.31: 469.3 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $17.47

$8,198

$-1,802 (-18.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $22.94

$10,765

+$765 (+7.6%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $27.07

$12,703

+$2,703 (+27.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (43 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 32● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	OUTPERFORM	$24	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	STRONG BUY	$25	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$20	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (INVA Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

INVA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.31%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $21.48H $21.65L $21.13C $21.31VOL 623.3K

RES: $21.78SUP: $20.26SMA50: $20.99SMA200: $21.89

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

INVA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 INVA Butterfly Map → + Track INVA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-2.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +14.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on INVA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for INVA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for INVA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (INVA)

Health Care Rank #45 of 1016 ⚔️ ETON vs INVA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (INVA vs. ETON, GPCR, PAHC, TYRA)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Innoviva Inc. (INVA) ranks #45 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #302 by equity capitalization ($1.54B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PAHC leads on earnings valuation at 32.7x trailing P/E, while INVA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.7% ROIC and 74.8% gross margin. INVA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
INVA ACTIVE Innoviva Inc.	B	75/100	—	74.8%	14.7%	+0.90%	$1.54B	Benchmark Subject
ETON Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc.	C	62/100	—	53.5%	-0.9%	+3.61%	$1.53B	/eton-vs-inva →
GPCR Structure Therapeutics Inc.	D-	42/100	—	—	-19.5%	+2.14%	$1.56B	/gpcr-vs-inva →
PAHC Phibro Animal Health Corporation (Class A)	C+	68/100	32.7x	30.9%	9.9%	+2.59%	$1.58B	/pahc-vs-inva →
TYRA Tyra Biosciences Inc.	D-	41/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.24%	$1.48B	/tyra-vs-inva →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001080014

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Innoviva Inc. (INVA) reported GAAP revenue of $411.3M (+14.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $358.7M , and +32.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $196.9M, and free cash flow of $195.8M (+3.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, INVA closed FY2025 with $1.64B in total assets against $257.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$411.3M	$0	$196.9M	$195.8M	$1.64B	$257.7M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$358.7M	$0	$188.7M	$188.4M	$1.30B	$256.3M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$310.5M	$0	$141.1M	$141.1M	—	—

3. INVA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is INVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Innoviva Inc. (NASDAQ: INVA) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $21.31 (+0.90% 1D, market cap $1.54B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 20/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, INVA ranks #45 in composite RQD confidence.

How does INVA compare to ETON and GPCR in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), INVA carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.8%, and ROIC of 14.7%. By comparison, ETON (Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.9%, cap $1.53B) and GPCR (Structure Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -19.5%, cap $1.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAHC leads on earnings multiple (32.7x) while INVA leads on capital efficiency (14.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for INVA?

Per INVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001080014), Innoviva Inc. generated $411.3M in revenue (+14.7% YoY), $0 in net income, and $195.8M in free cash flow against $1.64B in total assets and $257.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (75% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is INVA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

INVA last traded at $21.31 (+0.90% on volume of 626,944 shares), positioning the stock +1.52% above its 50-day simple moving average ($20.99) and -2.65% below its 200-day simple moving average ($21.89). Across its 52-week range of $17.84 to $25.15, INVA sits at the 47.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($20.31 to $22.31).

INVA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is INVA's 12-month stock price target?

Innoviva Inc. (INVA) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $22.94 (+7.6% from $21.31), with a bull-case target of $27.07 and a bear-case floor of $17.47.

Is INVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates INVA B (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 75/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: INVA RQD Cockpit INVA 12M Forecast INVA Earnings & Move INVA Dividends & DRIP INVA Insiders & 13F INVA Whale Options INVA Profit Sankey INVA News & Why