RISK WATCHYahoo • 2d ago
Insteel: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term InvestorsManufacturing consolidation and mesh capacity expansion position Insteel to offset tariff-driven margin pressure while capturing market share gains.
Why IIIN Stock surged +2.59% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$28.96 +2.59% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.04
Insteel Industries Inc. (IIIN) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $560.6M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.04 (+0.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 4.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for IIIN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY IIIN SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 33% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B$29.50+0.5% Next Q
72
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B-$29.66-6.4% Next Q
69
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$27.77+4.3% Next Q
67
CurrentGrade C$28.96+1.1% Hist 90D α
64
Trajectory: B (72) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the IIIN Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 64/100 (C) score, IIIN faces multiple-compression risk if 13.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($29.81) or 200D SMA ($30.93) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($29.74) toward Bear Floor ($23.20).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $IIIN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “IIIN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why IIIN Stock surged +2.59% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Insteel Industries Inc. (IIIN) surged +2.59% to $28.96, trading at 33% of its 52-week range ($24.35 – $38.45). Solid 14% profit margin (11% return on capital), mixed timing at 14x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 33% of its 52-week range ($24.35 – $38.45) with RSI-14 at 41.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.7% around $28.96 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 14.4% gross margin and $27.2M annual free cash flow.
Live IIIN Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 6d ago
Insteel Industries Inc. 2026 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation2026-10-26. The following slide deck was published by Insteel Industries Inc.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 7d ago
Insteel Industries (IIIN) Stock Sinks As Q4 Results Suffer Margin CompressionInsteel Industries just got punished for doing more business with less profit. The stock dropped 8.4% to US$27.77 after Q4 2026 results, even as revenue reached US$209.3 million and earnings came in at US$0.40 per share.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 8d ago
Why Insteel (IIIN) shares are getting obliterated todayShares of steel wire manufacturer Insteel (NYSE:IIIN) fell 7.9% in the afternoon session after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings per share below consensus estimates.
CATALYSTYahoo • 9d ago
IIIN Q3 deep dive: cost pressures and project growth shape margin outlookSteel wire manufacturer Insteel (NYSE:IIIN) reported calendar Q3 2026 (fiscal Q4 2026) results beating Wall Street’s revenue expectations, with sales up 17.9% year on year to $209.3 million. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.42
MARKET WIREYahoo • 9d ago
Insteel Industries, Inc. Q4 2026 Earnings Call SummaryMoby summary of Insteel Industries, Inc.'s Q4 2026 earnings call
MARKET WIREYahoo • 10d ago
Insteel Industries Q4 Earnings Call HighlightsInsteel Industries (NYSE:IIIN) reported lower fourth-quarter earnings as elevated raw-material, freight and manufacturing costs compressed margins, despite higher sales and shipment volumes supported by infrastructure sp
CATALYSTYahoo • 10d ago
Insteel (IIIN) Q4 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptMargin pressure and raw material costs weigh on earnings despite strong sales growth.
MARKET WIREFintel • 10d ago
Insteel Industries, Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 ResultsRISK WATCHChartMill • 10d ago
Insteel Industries Inc (NYSE:IIIN) Q4 Revenue In Line but EPS Misses as Margin Pressure PersistsInsteel Q4 revenue meets consensus but EPS misses as margin pressure persists; debt-free balance sheet and cost cuts support FY27 recovery outlook.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (IIIN Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
IIIN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.62%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $28.86H $29.11L $28.20C $28.96VOL 135.5K
RES: $30.87SUP: $27.03SMA50: $29.81SMA200: $30.93
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
IIIN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
5.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +22.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on IIIN today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for IIIN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for IIIN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (IIIN)
Materials Rank #32 of 270
⚔️ ASTL vs IIIN Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (IIIN vs. ASTL, MTUS, SXC, NWPX)
Industry: Steel/Iron Ore (26 Tracked Issuers)Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Insteel Industries Inc. (IIIN) ranks #32 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #167 by equity capitalization ($560.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IIIN leads on earnings valuation at 13.7x trailing P/E, while IIIN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and 14.4% gross margin. NWPX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with IIIN at 64/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IIIN
ACTIVE
Insteel Industries Inc. | C | 64/100 | 13.7x | 14.4% | 11.4% | +2.59% | $560.6M | Benchmark Subject |
| ASTL Algoma Steel Group Inc. | C- | 61/100 | — | — | — | +1.01% | $527.3M | /astl-vs-iiin → |
| MTUS Metallus Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | 8.2% | -0.2% | +1.18% | $887.8M | /mtus-vs-iiin → |
| SXC SunCoke Energy Inc. | D | 51/100 | — | — | -2.9% | +3.76% | $936.2M | /sxc-vs-iiin → |
| NWPX NWPX Infrastructure Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 26.7x | 19.7% | 10.0% | -1.68% | $944.4M | /nwpx-vs-iiin → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-27 • CIK 0000764401In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27), Insteel Industries Inc. (IIIN) reported GAAP revenue of $647.7M (+22.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $529.2M , and -0.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $41.0M, operating cash flow of $27.2M, and free cash flow of $27.2M (-53.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, IIIN closed FY2025 with $456.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-27 | $647.7M | $41.0M | $27.2M | $27.2M | $456.1M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-28 | $529.2M | $19.3M | $58.2M | $58.2M | $404.7M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $649.2M | $32.4M | $142.2M | $142.2M | — | — |
3. IIIN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs IIIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Insteel Industries Inc. (NYSE: IIIN) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $28.96 (+2.59% 1D, market cap $560.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, IIIN ranks #32 in composite RQD confidence.
How does IIIN compare to ASTL and MTUS in the Materials sector?
Within the Materials sector (Steel/Iron Ore), IIIN carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.7x, gross margin of 14.4%, and ROIC of 11.4%. By comparison, ASTL (Algoma Steel Group Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $527.3M) and MTUS (Metallus Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.2%, cap $887.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IIIN leads on earnings multiple (13.7x) while IIIN leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IIIN?
Per IIIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-27, CIK 0000764401), Insteel Industries Inc. generated $647.7M in revenue (+22.4% YoY), $41.0M in net income, and $27.2M in free cash flow against $456.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is IIIN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
IIIN last traded at $28.96 (+2.59% on volume of 166,138 shares), positioning the stock -2.85% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.81) and -6.37% below its 200-day simple moving average ($30.93). Across its 52-week range of $24.35 to $38.45, IIIN sits at the 32.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.7% ($27.02 to $30.90).
IIIN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is IIIN stock moving today?
Why IIIN Stock surged +2.59% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 14% profit margin (11% return on capital), mixed timing at 14x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.