MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why IBTA Stock surged +2.00% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$49.40 +2.00% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $49.48
Ibotta Inc. (Class A) (IBTA) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.14B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $49.48 (+0.17%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 21.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for IBTA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY IBTA SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (22% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.62 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (21% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 21.9% FCF Margin ($75.0M FCF) & 79.2% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$43.07+11.1% Next Q
55
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$47.84+1.6% Next Q
58
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$48.61+1.6% Next Q
60
CurrentGrade C$49.40+0.9% Hist 90D α
63
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the IBTA Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 63/100 (C) score, IBTA faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 76.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($42.23) or 200D SMA ($32.85) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($50.51) toward Bear Floor ($39.40).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $IBTA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “IBTA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why IBTA Stock surged +2.00% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Ibotta Inc. (Class A) (IBTA) surged +2.00% to $49.40, trading at 96% of its 52-week range ($19.1 – $50.54). Solid 79% profit margin (-1% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 96% of its 52-week range ($19.1 – $50.54) with RSI-14 at 66.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.6% around $49.40 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 79.2% gross margin and $75.0M annual free cash flow.
Live IBTA Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
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RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
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CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (IBTA Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
IBTA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +40.34%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $50.29H $50.29L $48.06C $49.40VOL 186.0K
RES: $51.73SUP: $18.22SMA50: $42.23SMA200: $32.85
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
IBTA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -6.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on IBTA today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for IBTA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for IBTA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (IBTA)
Communication Services Rank #28 of 132
⚔️ MNTN vs IBTA Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Communication Services Peer Comparison (IBTA vs. MNTN, CRTO, GRPN, STGW)
Industry: Advertising (23 Tracked Issuers)Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ibotta Inc. (Class A) (IBTA) ranks #28 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #63 by equity capitalization ($1.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CRTO leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while GRPN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 56.5% ROIC and 90.8% gross margin. MNTN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with IBTA at 63/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBTA
ACTIVE
Ibotta Inc. (Class A) | C | 63/100 | — | 79.2% | -0.7% | +2.00% | $1.14B | Benchmark Subject |
| MNTN MNTN Inc. (Class A) | B | 75/100 | — | 77.2% | 19.9% | +1.65% | $736.1M | /mntn-vs-ibta → |
| CRTO Criteo S.A. | C+ | 69/100 | 4.9x | 54.0% | 19.8% | +2.97% | $729.6M | /crto-vs-ibta → |
| GRPN Groupon Inc. | D+ | 53/100 | — | 90.8% | 56.5% | -0.97% | $661.2M | /grpn-vs-ibta → |
| STGW Stagwell Inc. (Class A) | C- | 60/100 | 79.4x | 36.5% | 6.3% | +12.68% | $2.43B | /stgw-vs-ibta → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001538379In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ibotta Inc. (Class A) (IBTA) reported GAAP revenue of $342.4M (-6.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $367.3M , and +7.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $3.6M, operating cash flow of $95.3M, and free cash flow of $75.0M (-34.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, IBTA closed FY2025 with $525.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.62, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $342.4M | $3.6M | $95.3M | $75.0M | $525.9M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $367.3M | $68.7M | $115.9M | $115.0M | $678.4M | $0 |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $320.0M | $38.1M | $22.7M | $22.7M | — | — |
3. IBTA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs IBTA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Ibotta Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: IBTA) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $49.40 (+2.00% 1D, market cap $1.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, IBTA ranks #28 in composite RQD confidence.
How does IBTA compare to MNTN and CRTO in the Communication Services sector?
Within the Communication Services sector (Advertising), IBTA carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 79.2%, and ROIC of -0.7%. By comparison, MNTN (MNTN Inc. (Class A)) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 19.9%, cap $736.1M) and CRTO (Criteo S.A.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $729.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRTO leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while GRPN leads on capital efficiency (56.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IBTA?
Per IBTA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001538379), Ibotta Inc. (Class A) generated $342.4M in revenue (-6.8% YoY), $3.6M in net income, and $75.0M in free cash flow against $525.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Communication Services with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is IBTA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
IBTA last traded at $49.40 (+2.00% on volume of 189,169 shares), positioning the stock +16.98% above its 50-day simple moving average ($42.23) and +50.38% above its 200-day simple moving average ($32.85). Across its 52-week range of $19.10 to $50.54, IBTA sits at the 96.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.6% ($44.66 to $54.14).
IBTA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is IBTA stock moving today?
Why IBTA Stock surged +2.00% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 79% profit margin (-1% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.