Stock Ratings / Communication Services / GRPN

CRTO (69) MNTN (75) IBTA (63) ANGI (61) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Groupon Inc. (GRPN) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$16.26 -0.97% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.20

Groupon Inc. (GRPN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $661.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.20 (-0.36%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 10% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GRPN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GRPN SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 10% FCF Margin ($49.9M FCF) & 90.8% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 12 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$18.63-11.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$16.57-2.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$16.12+0.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$16.26-0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GRPN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GRPN currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Strong cash generator (91% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($18.65) and Max Pain ($17.07) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $31.39.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GRPN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GRPN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

32.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

0.20>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE34% OF RANGE

L: $9$16.26H: $30

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (91% profit margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on GRPN

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (75)

56.5% ROIC with 90.8% gross margin and 7.54% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 0.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (50)

20/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like GRPN

✓Strong cash generator (91% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GRPN)

✓Walkthrough of GRPN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

GRPN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.43%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN

2026-10-30O $15.95H $16.32L $15.59C $16.26VOL 1.09M

RES: $18.60SUP: $18.93SMA50: $18.65SMA200: $17.66

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GRPN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GRPN Butterfly Map → + Track GRPN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

17.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GRPN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GRPN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GRPN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GRPN)

Communication Services Rank #70 of 132 ⚔️ CRTO vs GRPN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Communication Services Peer Comparison (GRPN vs. CRTO, MNTN, IBTA, ANGI)

Industry: Advertising (23 Tracked Issuers)

Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Groupon Inc. (GRPN) ranks #70 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #73 by equity capitalization ($661.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CRTO leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while GRPN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 56.5% ROIC and 90.8% gross margin. MNTN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with GRPN at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GRPN ACTIVE Groupon Inc.	D+	53/100	—	90.8%	56.5%	-0.97%	$661.2M	Benchmark Subject
CRTO Criteo S.A.	C+	69/100	4.9x	54.0%	19.8%	+2.97%	$729.6M	/crto-vs-grpn →
MNTN MNTN Inc. (Class A)	B	75/100	—	77.2%	19.9%	+1.65%	$736.1M	/mntn-vs-grpn →
IBTA Ibotta Inc. (Class A)	C	63/100	—	79.2%	-0.7%	+2.00%	$1.14B	/ibta-vs-grpn →
ANGI Angi Inc. (Class A)	C-	61/100	5.6x	95.4%	4.6%	+1.01%	$244.1M	/angi-vs-grpn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001490281

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Groupon Inc. (GRPN) reported GAAP revenue of $498.4M (+1.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $492.6M , and -3.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$83.3M, operating cash flow of $64.5M, and free cash flow of $49.9M (+23.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, GRPN closed FY2025 with $670.4M in total assets against $309.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$498.4M	-$83.3M	$64.5M	$49.9M	$670.4M	$309.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$492.6M	-$56.5M	$55.9M	$40.6M	$612.7M	$246.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$514.9M	-$52.9M	-$78.0M	-$78.0M	—	—

3. GRPN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GRPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $16.26 (-0.97% 1D, market cap $661.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, GRPN ranks #70 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GRPN compare to CRTO and MNTN in the Communication Services sector?

Within the Communication Services sector (Advertising), GRPN carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 90.8%, and ROIC of 56.5%. By comparison, CRTO (Criteo S.A.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $729.6M) and MNTN (MNTN Inc. (Class A)) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 19.9%, cap $736.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRTO leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while GRPN leads on capital efficiency (56.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GRPN?

Per GRPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001490281), Groupon Inc. generated $498.4M in revenue (+1.2% YoY), -$83.3M in net income, and $49.9M in free cash flow against $670.4M in total assets and $309.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (91% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GRPN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GRPN last traded at $16.26 (-0.97% on volume of 667,684 shares), positioning the stock -12.82% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.65) and -7.93% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.66). Across its 52-week range of $9.17 to $29.90, GRPN sits at the 34.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 32.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.0% ($14.47 to $18.05).

GRPN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell GRPN stock right now?

Groupon Inc. (GRPN) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 53/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (57% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is GRPN's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

GRPN's 12-month base price target is $15.89 (range $12.39 to $31.39), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: GRPN RQD Cockpit GRPN 12M Forecast GRPN Earnings & Move GRPN Dividends & DRIP GRPN Insiders & 13F GRPN Whale Options GRPN Profit Sankey GRPN News & Why