Stock Ratings / Communication Services / GRPN / forecast

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Groupon Inc. (GRPN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$16.26 -0.97% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.20

Groupon Inc. (GRPN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $661.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GRPN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GRPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $16.26 (-0.97% 1D, market cap $661.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, GRPN ranks #67 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GRPN compare to CRTO and MNTN in the Communication Services sector?

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Within the Communication Services sector (Advertising), GRPN carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 90.8%, and ROIC of 56.5%. By comparison, CRTO (Criteo S.A.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $729.6M) and MNTN (MNTN Inc. (Class A)) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 19.9%, cap $736.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRTO leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while GRPN leads on capital efficiency (56.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GRPN?

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Per GRPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001490281), Groupon Inc. generated $498.4M in revenue (+1.2% YoY), -$83.3M in net income, and $49.9M in free cash flow against $670.4M in total assets and $309.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (91% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.20 (-0.36%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 10% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GRPN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GRPN SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (32% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 10% FCF Margin ($49.9M FCF) & 90.8% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$18.46-8.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$16.84-1.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$16.65-2.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D$16.26-5.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → D (47)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GRPN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GRPN currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Strong cash generator (91% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($18.59) and Max Pain ($17.07) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $31.39.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GRPN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GRPN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your GRPN Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $16.26: 615.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $12.06

$7,417

$-2,583 (-25.8%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $15.46

$9,508

$-492 (-4.9%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $31.39

$19,305

+$9,305 (+93.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$16	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$30	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$14	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GRPN)

✓Walkthrough of GRPN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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GRPN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.84%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $16.42H $16.42L $16.26C $16.26VOL 667.7K

RES: $18.47SUP: $15.83SMA50: $18.59SMA200: $17.65

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GRPN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GRPN Butterfly Map → + Track GRPN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

17.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GRPN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GRPN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GRPN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GRPN)

Communication Services Rank #67 of 132 ⚔️ CRTO vs GRPN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Communication Services Peer Comparison (GRPN vs. CRTO, MNTN, IBTA, ANGI)

Industry: Advertising (23 Tracked Issuers)

Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Groupon Inc. (GRPN) ranks #67 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #73 by equity capitalization ($661.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CRTO leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while GRPN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 56.5% ROIC and 90.8% gross margin. IBTA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with GRPN at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GRPN ACTIVE Groupon Inc.	D	47/100	—	90.8%	56.5%	-0.97%	$661.2M	Benchmark Subject
CRTO Criteo S.A.	D+	53/100	4.9x	54.0%	19.8%	+2.97%	$729.6M	/crto-vs-grpn →
MNTN MNTN Inc. (Class A)	C	62/100	—	77.2%	19.9%	+1.65%	$736.1M	/mntn-vs-grpn →
IBTA Ibotta Inc. (Class A)	C+	67/100	—	79.2%	-0.7%	+2.00%	$1.14B	/ibta-vs-grpn →
ANGI Angi Inc. (Class A)	D+	52/100	5.6x	95.4%	4.6%	+1.01%	$244.1M	/angi-vs-grpn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001490281

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Groupon Inc. (GRPN) reported GAAP revenue of $498.4M (+1.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $492.6M , and -3.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$83.3M, operating cash flow of $64.5M, and free cash flow of $49.9M (+23.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, GRPN closed FY2025 with $670.4M in total assets against $309.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$498.4M	-$83.3M	$64.5M	$49.9M	$670.4M	$309.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$492.6M	-$56.5M	$55.9M	$40.6M	$612.7M	$246.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$514.9M	-$52.9M	-$78.0M	-$78.0M	—	—

3. GRPN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GRPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does GRPN compare to CRTO and MNTN in the Communication Services sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GRPN?

Where is GRPN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GRPN last traded at $16.26 (-0.97% on volume of 667,684 shares), positioning the stock -12.53% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.59) and -7.88% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.65). Across its 52-week range of $9.17 to $29.90, GRPN sits at the 34.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.7% ($14.52 to $18.00).

GRPN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is GRPN's 12-month stock price target?

Groupon Inc. (GRPN) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $15.46 (-4.9% from $16.26), with a bull-case target of $31.39 and a bear-case floor of $12.06.

Is GRPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates GRPN D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 47/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: GRPN RQD Cockpit GRPN 12M Forecast GRPN Earnings & Move GRPN Dividends & DRIP GRPN Insiders & 13F GRPN Whale Options GRPN Profit Sankey GRPN News & Why