MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why HPK Stock dropped -4.83% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$10.45 -4.83% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.34
HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $1.32B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.34 (-1.06%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 59.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HPK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HPK SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (27% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (25% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 81% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 53.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$9.55+10.5% Next Q
36
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$10.55+9.7% Next Q
39
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$11.57-9.7% Next Q
41
CurrentGrade D$10.45-6.5% Hist 90D α
44
Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HPK Turnaround Squeeze
While HPK currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.91) and Max Pain ($10.97) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.63.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HPK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HPK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why HPK Stock dropped -4.83% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK) dropped -4.83% to $10.45, trading at 81% of its 52-week range ($3.85 – $12.03). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 81% of its 52-week range ($3.85 – $12.03) with RSI-14 at 53.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $10.45 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $511.6M annual free cash flow.
Live HPK Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HPK)
- ✓Walkthrough of HPK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HPK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +54.13%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $10.55H $10.60L $10.17C $10.45VOL 671.7K
RES: $12.25SUP: $7.90SMA50: $8.91SMA200: $7.08
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
HPK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
12.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -22.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HPK today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HPK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HPK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HPK)
Energy Rank #174 of 211
⚔️ PDS vs HPK Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (HPK vs. PDS, BORR, NBR, REPX)
Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK) ranks #174 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #133 by equity capitalization ($1.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NBR leads on earnings valuation at 5.2x trailing P/E, while NBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.1% ROIC and — gross margin. REPX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with HPK at 44/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPK
ACTIVE
HighPeak Energy Inc. | D | 44/100 | — | — | 4.6% | -4.83% | $1.32B | Benchmark Subject |
| PDS Precision Drilling Corporation | D+ | 58/100 | — | — | — | +2.10% | $1.35B | /pds-vs-hpk → |
| BORR Borr Drilling Limited | D+ | 53/100 | 27.8x | — | 8.9% | -7.52% | $1.25B | /borr-vs-hpk → |
| NBR Nabors Industries Ltd. | D | 44/100 | 5.2x | — | 21.1% | -1.43% | $1.48B | /nbr-vs-hpk → |
| REPX Riley Exploration Permian Inc. | C+ | 68/100 | 7.2x | — | 12.2% | -0.02% | $1.15B | /repx-vs-hpk → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001792849In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK) reported GAAP revenue of $863.4M (-22.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.12B , and -23.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $18.96B, operating cash flow of $511.6M, and free cash flow of $511.6M (-25.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, HPK closed FY2025 with $3.21B in total assets against $1.13B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $863.4M | $18.96B | $511.6M | $511.6M | $3.21B | $1.13B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.12B | $95.07B | $690.4M | $690.4M | $3.06B | $928.4M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.13B | $215.87B | $756.4M | $756.4M | — | — |
3. HPK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs HPK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, HighPeak Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: HPK) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $10.45 (-4.83% 1D, market cap $1.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, HPK ranks #174 in composite RQD confidence.
How does HPK compare to PDS and BORR in the Energy sector?
Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), HPK carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, PDS (Precision Drilling Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.35B) and BORR (Borr Drilling Limited) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 27.8x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $1.25B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NBR leads on earnings multiple (5.2x) while NBR leads on capital efficiency (21.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HPK?
Per HPK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001792849), HighPeak Energy Inc. generated $863.4M in revenue (-22.7% YoY), $18.96B in net income, and $511.6M in free cash flow against $3.21B in total assets and $1.13B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is HPK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
HPK last traded at $10.45 (-4.83% on volume of 477,550 shares), positioning the stock +17.28% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.91) and +47.60% above its 200-day simple moving average ($7.08). Across its 52-week range of $3.85 to $12.03, HPK sits at the 80.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($9.14 to $11.76).
HPK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is HPK stock moving today?
Why HPK Stock dropped -4.83% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.