Stock Ratings / Energy / HPK / financials

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HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$10.45 -4.83% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.34

HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.32B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HPK Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HPK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, HighPeak Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: HPK) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $10.45 (-4.83% 1D, market cap $1.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, HPK ranks #101 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HPK compare to PDS and BORR in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), HPK carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, PDS (Precision Drilling Corporation) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.35B) and BORR (Borr Drilling Limited) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 27.8x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $1.25B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NBR leads on earnings multiple (5.2x) while NBR leads on capital efficiency (21.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HPK?

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Per HPK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001792849), HighPeak Energy Inc. generated $863.4M in revenue (-22.7% YoY), $18.96B in net income, and $511.6M in free cash flow against $3.21B in total assets and $1.13B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.34 (-1.06%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 59.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HPK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HPK SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 81% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 17.4% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$9.71+17.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$11.39+0% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$11.39-8.3% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$10.45+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HPK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, HPK faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($8.95) or 200D SMA ($7.11) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.50) toward Bear Floor ($8.19).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HPK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HPK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How HPK Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$511.6M (59.3% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $1.13B

FY24

Rev $1.12B

FY25

Rev $863.4M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$863.4M	52%	17.4%	$18.96B	$511.6M	4.6%
FY 2024	$1.12B	52%	30.2%	$95.07B	$690.4M	10.9%
FY 2023	$1.13B	52%	37.7%	$215.87B	$756.4M	4.6%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HPK)

✓Walkthrough of HPK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HPK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +51.01%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $10.98H $10.98L $10.45C $10.45VOL 477.6K

RES: $12.31SUP: $7.93SMA50: $8.95SMA200: $7.11

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HPK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HPK Butterfly Map → + Track HPK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

12.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -22.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HPK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HPK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HPK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HPK)

Energy Rank #101 of 211 ⚔️ PDS vs HPK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (HPK vs. PDS, BORR, NBR, REPX)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK) ranks #101 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #133 by equity capitalization ($1.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NBR leads on earnings valuation at 5.2x trailing P/E, while NBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.1% ROIC and — gross margin. REPX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with HPK at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HPK ACTIVE HighPeak Energy Inc.	C-	59/100	—	—	4.6%	-4.83%	$1.32B	Benchmark Subject
PDS Precision Drilling Corporation	C	63/100	—	—	—	+2.10%	$1.35B	/pds-vs-hpk →
BORR Borr Drilling Limited	D	50/100	27.8x	—	8.9%	-7.52%	$1.25B	/borr-vs-hpk →
NBR Nabors Industries Ltd.	D	47/100	5.2x	—	21.1%	-1.43%	$1.48B	/nbr-vs-hpk →
REPX Riley Exploration Permian Inc.	B	74/100	7.2x	—	12.2%	-0.02%	$1.15B	/repx-vs-hpk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001792849

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK) reported GAAP revenue of $863.4M (-22.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.12B , and -23.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $18.96B, operating cash flow of $511.6M, and free cash flow of $511.6M (-25.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, HPK closed FY2025 with $3.21B in total assets against $1.13B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$863.4M	$18.96B	$511.6M	$511.6M	$3.21B	$1.13B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.12B	$95.07B	$690.4M	$690.4M	$3.06B	$928.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.13B	$215.87B	$756.4M	$756.4M	—	—

3. HPK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HPK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does HPK compare to PDS and BORR in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HPK?

Where is HPK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HPK last traded at $10.45 (-4.83% on volume of 477,550 shares), positioning the stock +16.76% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.95) and +46.98% above its 200-day simple moving average ($7.11). Across its 52-week range of $3.85 to $12.03, HPK sits at the 80.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($9.14 to $11.76).

HPK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), HPK converted $863.4M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 17.4% operating margin, and $511.6M in free cash flow (59.3% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: HPK RQD Cockpit HPK 12M Forecast HPK Earnings & Move HPK Dividends & DRIP HPK Insiders & 13F HPK Whale Options HPK Profit Sankey HPK News & Why