Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HLMN / options

KODK (45) IMAX (77) CIX (65) SSD (76) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$7.80 +2.77% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.82

Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.52B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.82 (+0.31%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 6.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HLMN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HLMN SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 27% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 66.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 7.3% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$6.97+5.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$7.37-2.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$7.20+8.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$7.80-0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HLMN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, HLMN faces multiple-compression risk if 37.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($7.34) or 200D SMA ($8.12) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($7.69) toward Bear Floor ($6.00).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HLMN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HLMN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±6.3%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (HLMN)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for HLMN.

Sponsored / Partner SpotlightACTIVE TRADER & PROP EVALUATION DESK

Practice in Our Weekly $100,000 Paper Arena Before Risking Personal Capital

Keep your personal nest egg in cash while trading NQ, ES, Crude, and Gold momentum using institutional prop-desk buying power.

FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

🏆 Enter Free $100K Paper Arena →

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HLMN)

✓Walkthrough of HLMN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

HLMN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.41%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $7.81H $7.90L $7.72C $7.80VOL 1.62M

RES: $10.38SUP: $6.35SMA50: $7.34SMA200: $8.12

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HLMN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HLMN Butterfly Map → + Track HLMN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

28.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HLMN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HLMN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HLMN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HLMN)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #542 of 1011 ⚔️ KODK vs HLMN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HLMN vs. KODK, IMAX, CIX, SSD)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) ranks #542 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #453 by equity capitalization ($1.52B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CIX leads on earnings valuation at 22.6x trailing P/E, while IMAX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 35.6% ROIC and 60.0% gross margin. IMAX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with HLMN at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HLMN ACTIVE Hillman Solutions Corp.	D+	55/100	37.6x	—	4.8%	+2.77%	$1.52B	Benchmark Subject
KODK Eastman Kodak Company Common	D	45/100	—	21.7%	0.0%	-0.95%	$913.4M	/kodk-vs-hlmn →
IMAX Imax Corporation	B+	77/100	80.7x	60.0%	35.6%	+1.62%	$2.82B	/imax-vs-hlmn →
CIX CompX International Inc.	C	65/100	22.6x	30.4%	21.1%	-0.75%	$440.2M	/cix-vs-hlmn →
SSD Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc.	B+	76/100	23.2x	45.9%	17.4%	+2.48%	$8.01B	/ssd-vs-hlmn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-27 • CIK 0001822492

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27), Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) reported GAAP revenue of $1.55B (+5.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.47B , and +5.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $40.3M, operating cash flow of $105.2M, and free cash flow of $105.2M (-42.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, HLMN closed FY2025 with $2.36B in total assets against $668.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.72, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-27	$1.55B	$40.3M	$105.2M	$105.2M	$2.36B	$668.3M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-28	$1.47B	$17.3M	$183.3M	$183.3M	$2.33B	$691.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-30	$1.48B	-$9.6M	$238.0M	$238.0M	—	—

3. HLMN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HLMN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ: HLMN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $7.80 (+2.77% 1D, market cap $1.52B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HLMN ranks #542 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HLMN compare to KODK and IMAX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), HLMN carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 37.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.8%. By comparison, KODK (Eastman Kodak Company Common) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.0%, cap $913.4M) and IMAX (Imax Corporation) posts a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 80.7x, ROIC 35.6%, cap $2.82B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CIX leads on earnings multiple (22.6x) while IMAX leads on capital efficiency (35.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLMN?

Per HLMN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27, CIK 0001822492), Hillman Solutions Corp. generated $1.55B in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $40.3M in net income, and $105.2M in free cash flow against $2.36B in total assets and $668.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HLMN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HLMN last traded at $7.80 (+2.77% on volume of 1,478,797 shares), positioning the stock +6.27% above its 50-day simple moving average ($7.34) and -3.94% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.12). Across its 52-week range of $6.66 to $10.85, HLMN sits at the 27.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.3% ($7.31 to $8.29).

HLMN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is HLMN's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for HLMN.

Direct Sub-Reports: HLMN RQD Cockpit HLMN 12M Forecast HLMN Earnings & Move HLMN Dividends & DRIP HLMN Insiders & 13F HLMN Whale Options HLMN Profit Sankey HLMN News & Why