Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HLMN / earnings

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Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.3% Move

$7.80 +2.77% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.82

Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.52B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HLMN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HLMN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ: HLMN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $7.80 (+2.77% 1D, market cap $1.52B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HLMN ranks #542 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HLMN compare to KODK and IMAX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), HLMN carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 37.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.8%. By comparison, KODK (Eastman Kodak Company Common) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.0%, cap $913.4M) and IMAX (Imax Corporation) posts a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 80.7x, ROIC 35.6%, cap $2.82B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CIX leads on earnings multiple (22.6x) while IMAX leads on capital efficiency (35.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLMN?

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Per HLMN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27, CIK 0001822492), Hillman Solutions Corp. generated $1.55B in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $40.3M in net income, and $105.2M in free cash flow against $2.36B in total assets and $668.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.82 (+0.31%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 6.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HLMN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HLMN SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 27% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 66.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 7.3% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$6.97+5.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$7.37-2.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$7.20+8.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$7.80-0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HLMN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, HLMN faces multiple-compression risk if 37.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($7.34) or 200D SMA ($8.12) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($7.69) toward Bear Floor ($6.00).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HLMN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HLMN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 26, 2026 (~54 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.3% Swing Band

±$0.49 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

HLMN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 55/100

Trailing EPS: $0.21 • YoY Revenue Growth: 5.4%

Model Bullish Setup (55/100)Model Risk Weight (45/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-27	$1.55B	$40.3M	$105.2M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-28	$1.47B	$17.3M	$183.3M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-30	$1.48B	-$9.6M	$238.0M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HLMN)

✓Walkthrough of HLMN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HLMN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.41%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $7.81H $7.90L $7.72C $7.80VOL 1.62M

RES: $10.38SUP: $6.35SMA50: $7.34SMA200: $8.12

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HLMN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HLMN Butterfly Map → + Track HLMN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

28.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HLMN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HLMN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HLMN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HLMN)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #542 of 1011 ⚔️ KODK vs HLMN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HLMN vs. KODK, IMAX, CIX, SSD)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) ranks #542 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #453 by equity capitalization ($1.52B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CIX leads on earnings valuation at 22.6x trailing P/E, while IMAX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 35.6% ROIC and 60.0% gross margin. IMAX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with HLMN at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HLMN ACTIVE Hillman Solutions Corp.	D+	55/100	37.6x	—	4.8%	+2.77%	$1.52B	Benchmark Subject
KODK Eastman Kodak Company Common	D	45/100	—	21.7%	0.0%	-0.95%	$913.4M	/kodk-vs-hlmn →
IMAX Imax Corporation	B+	77/100	80.7x	60.0%	35.6%	+1.62%	$2.82B	/imax-vs-hlmn →
CIX CompX International Inc.	C	65/100	22.6x	30.4%	21.1%	-0.75%	$440.2M	/cix-vs-hlmn →
SSD Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc.	B+	76/100	23.2x	45.9%	17.4%	+2.48%	$8.01B	/ssd-vs-hlmn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-27 • CIK 0001822492

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27), Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) reported GAAP revenue of $1.55B (+5.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.47B , and +5.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $40.3M, operating cash flow of $105.2M, and free cash flow of $105.2M (-42.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, HLMN closed FY2025 with $2.36B in total assets against $668.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.72, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-27	$1.55B	$40.3M	$105.2M	$105.2M	$2.36B	$668.3M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-28	$1.47B	$17.3M	$183.3M	$183.3M	$2.33B	$691.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-30	$1.48B	-$9.6M	$238.0M	$238.0M	—	—

3. HLMN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HLMN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does HLMN compare to KODK and IMAX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLMN?

Where is HLMN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HLMN last traded at $7.80 (+2.77% on volume of 1,478,797 shares), positioning the stock +6.27% above its 50-day simple moving average ($7.34) and -3.94% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.12). Across its 52-week range of $6.66 to $10.85, HLMN sits at the 27.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.3% ($7.31 to $8.29).

HLMN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is HLMN's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 26, 2026.

How much is HLMN stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.3% event move for HLMN, spanning a range between $7.31 and $8.29.

Direct Sub-Reports: HLMN RQD Cockpit HLMN 12M Forecast HLMN Earnings & Move HLMN Dividends & DRIP HLMN Insiders & 13F HLMN Whale Options HLMN Profit Sankey HLMN News & Why