MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why HLMN Stock surged +2.77% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$7.80 +2.77% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.82
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $1.52B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.82 (+0.31%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 6.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
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Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HLMN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HLMN SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (27% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (24% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 27% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 66.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 7.3% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$6.97+5.7% Next Q
47
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$7.37-2.3% Next Q
50
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$7.20+8.3% Next Q
52
CurrentGrade D+$7.80-0.5% Hist 90D α
55
Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HLMN Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, HLMN faces multiple-compression risk if 37.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($7.34) or 200D SMA ($8.12) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($7.69) toward Bear Floor ($6.00).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HLMN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HLMN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why HLMN Stock surged +2.77% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) surged +2.77% to $7.80, trading at 27% of its 52-week range ($6.66 – $10.85). Stretched risk/reward at 38x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 27% of its 52-week range ($6.66 – $10.85) with RSI-14 at 66.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.3% around $7.80 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $105.2M annual free cash flow.
Live HLMN Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HLMN)
- ✓Walkthrough of HLMN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HLMN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.41%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $7.81H $7.90L $7.72C $7.80VOL 1.62M
RES: $10.38SUP: $6.35SMA50: $7.34SMA200: $8.12
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
HLMN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
28.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +5.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HLMN today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HLMN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HLMN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HLMN)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #542 of 1011
⚔️ KODK vs HLMN Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HLMN vs. KODK, IMAX, CIX, SSD)
Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) ranks #542 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #453 by equity capitalization ($1.52B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CIX leads on earnings valuation at 22.6x trailing P/E, while IMAX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 35.6% ROIC and 60.0% gross margin. IMAX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with HLMN at 55/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLMN
ACTIVE
Hillman Solutions Corp. | D+ | 55/100 | 37.6x | — | 4.8% | +2.77% | $1.52B | Benchmark Subject |
| KODK Eastman Kodak Company Common | D | 45/100 | — | 21.7% | 0.0% | -0.95% | $913.4M | /kodk-vs-hlmn → |
| IMAX Imax Corporation | B+ | 77/100 | 80.7x | 60.0% | 35.6% | +1.62% | $2.82B | /imax-vs-hlmn → |
| CIX CompX International Inc. | C | 65/100 | 22.6x | 30.4% | 21.1% | -0.75% | $440.2M | /cix-vs-hlmn → |
| SSD Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc. | B+ | 76/100 | 23.2x | 45.9% | 17.4% | +2.48% | $8.01B | /ssd-vs-hlmn → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-27 • CIK 0001822492In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27), Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) reported GAAP revenue of $1.55B (+5.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.47B , and +5.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $40.3M, operating cash flow of $105.2M, and free cash flow of $105.2M (-42.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, HLMN closed FY2025 with $2.36B in total assets against $668.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.72, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-27 | $1.55B | $40.3M | $105.2M | $105.2M | $2.36B | $668.3M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-28 | $1.47B | $17.3M | $183.3M | $183.3M | $2.33B | $691.7M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-30 | $1.48B | -$9.6M | $238.0M | $238.0M | — | — |
3. HLMN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs HLMN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ: HLMN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $7.80 (+2.77% 1D, market cap $1.52B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HLMN ranks #542 in composite RQD confidence.
How does HLMN compare to KODK and IMAX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), HLMN carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 37.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.8%. By comparison, KODK (Eastman Kodak Company Common) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.0%, cap $913.4M) and IMAX (Imax Corporation) posts a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 80.7x, ROIC 35.6%, cap $2.82B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CIX leads on earnings multiple (22.6x) while IMAX leads on capital efficiency (35.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLMN?
Per HLMN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27, CIK 0001822492), Hillman Solutions Corp. generated $1.55B in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $40.3M in net income, and $105.2M in free cash flow against $2.36B in total assets and $668.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is HLMN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
HLMN last traded at $7.80 (+2.77% on volume of 1,478,797 shares), positioning the stock +6.27% above its 50-day simple moving average ($7.34) and -3.94% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.12). Across its 52-week range of $6.66 to $10.85, HLMN sits at the 27.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.3% ($7.31 to $8.29).
HLMN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is HLMN stock moving today?
Why HLMN Stock surged +2.77% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 38x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.